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000
FXUS64 KJAN 180412 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS EVENING...A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED BOTH AT THE SFC AND UP THROUGH ABOUT 850MB. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM GWO TO JUST NORTH OF MEI. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT AS SOLID MOISTURE/THETA E
ADV CONTINUES ATOP THAT FEATURE IN THE 0-2KM LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MULI`S OF -5 TO -7C. THERE IS ALSO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KTS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
AT THIS TIME AND DESPITE ONGOING CONVECTION...WE ARE LACKING A
SUFFICIENT TRIGGER AND THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE SOLID
MOISTURE ADV NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IN A BOUT 2-4 HRS...A
SUBTLE BUT EVIDENT S/WV (CURRENTLY NEAR MEM) WILL SLIP TO THE SE AND
PROVIDE A BETTER TRIGGER AND INCREASED ASCENT. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTION INCREASING AFTER 06-08Z ACROSS THE NE CWA
THROUGH ABOUT 12-13Z. WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION...WILL MENTION THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN RISK WILL LIKELY COME FROM HEAVY RAIN
AS STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN/MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
PARTS OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR HAVE SEEN 1-2 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND
ADDITIONAL PRECIP COULD POSE A FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY IF 2-4
INCHES OCCUR. WE WILL BE UPDATING THE GRAPHICS AND HWO TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/NE MS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
MOVED INTO CENTRAL AL. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM FORMATION OF SCATTERED
STORMS STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE HERE IN CENTRAL/NE MS. ADJUSTED POPS
FOR THE UPDATE. MOSTLY LOWERED THEM EVERYWHERE, KEEPING A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR NE MS. SHOULD BE A HUMID AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF ARKLAMISS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE ANOTHER EPISODE OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS IMPACTING MOST
TAF SITES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LIFT INTO VFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SHOWER/TSRA CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE GWO/GTR/MEI AREA. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  87  68  88 /  11  12   6  13
MERIDIAN      67  87  66  89 /  20  25  15  12
VICKSBURG     68  87  66  88 /   7  12   4  13
HATTIESBURG   68  88  69  87 /   4   9  12   7
NATCHEZ       69  86  67  88 /   5   8   7  10
GREENVILLE    70  88  69  89 /  13  13   4  13
GREENWOOD     69  87  69  89 /  30  28   8  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME