000
FXUS64 KJAN 150130 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
830 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PERCHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
NORTHERN GULF. HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE UPDATED BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE
PLANNED. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AND LGT SFC WINDS XPCTD THRU THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS TO 15KTS OR SO ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS THE DELTA TOMORROW AFTN. /BK/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN TO THE MID 80S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS.
THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SFC HIGH...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE FORECAST
FOR THE DELTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20. THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT POSITIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND
OTHER MEAGER PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THUNDER WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS AND THROUGH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. /28/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM
WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK
TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE CONTRIBUTED TO THE BUILDING MID/UPPER
RIDGE. ON FRI...PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-700MB AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. FOR THE
WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL CAPPING WILL TAKE HOLD AND LIMIT PRECIP
POTENTIAL. THE RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE WARMER TEMPS BOTH DURING THE
DAY AND THE MORNING.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONT TO NEAR THE FORECAST AREA...THUS HELPING TO INCREASE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/BK/28/CME