000
FXUS64 KJAN 140833
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
THIS PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTH...UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FOLLOWED BY A DRYER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY THEN POPS AND TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY COOL TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW LINE
OF STORMS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO A WEAK FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

FOR MAINLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION. OTHERWISE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXPECT LESS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK FRONT. LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BRING LESS MUGGY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
90S SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AS DEWPOINTS PUSHES BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THUS LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FOR ANY RAINFALL CHANCE FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE./17/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. IN FACT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BEING CLOSER TO...BUT
STILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN...SEASONAL NORMALS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGER TROUGH SITUATED DOWN THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. LAST NIGHTS MODELS SHOWED IT STALLING
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW IT STALLING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL HELP BECOME A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AMPLE
INSTABILITY...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE MAY
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. PW
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.8-2.1 INCHES WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING WANTS TO TRY TO EDGE BACK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BUT WE REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE THING INTERESTING TO NOTE AS WELL IS THAT THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN INTO MEXICO ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR
WEATHER...BUT IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WINDS WL BECOME NLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/SWLY
WINDS OUT AHEAD. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING XCPT PSBLY AT PIB/HBG WHERE SOME MVFR VSBY
COULD DEVELOP 10-13Z. VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
UNTIL 18Z AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS LOOK TO
PREVAIL TOMORROW FOR ALL AREAS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  63  94  72 /   4   6   6  10
MERIDIAN      91  62  92  70 /   3   6   6   8
VICKSBURG     91  63  92  68 /   6   7   7  10
HATTIESBURG   94  66  95  73 /  20   5   6   9
NATCHEZ       91  66  93  73 /  22   7   9   9
GREENVILLE    90  66  91  71 /   1   5  10  11
GREENWOOD     88  61  91  70 /   1   4   7  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/28