000
FXUS64 KJAN 122002
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING BUT SOLID WARM-UP TO
FOLLOW AS QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING NEAR 70F DEGREES NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
SOUTH BUT HAVE ONLY EXHIBITED 1F DEGREE RISES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS LIKELY DUE TO ADEQUATE BL MIXING OF COOLER AIR ALOFT. HAVE
REDUCED HIGHS 1-2F THIS AFTN IN LIEU OF THIS TREND. WINDS HAVE
CALMED POST-FRONT FROM THIS MORNING BUT SOME PERIODIC GUSTS NEAR
15-20 MPH COULD OCCUR THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL QUICKLY GO CALM BY
SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SETS
THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT.

CURRENT DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH AS
THE DRY FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO SRN AREAS. MANY READINGS ARE
RUNNING BELOW CURRENT GUIDANCE BUT NPW/MOS SUITE INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 1-4 DEGREES OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR MONDAY WITH GREENVILLE POSSIBLY BREAKING THEIR
RECORD. HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AND SOME HIGH PASSING CLOUDS WILL MAKE
RADIATIONAL COOLING LESS IDEAL AND STUCK WITH MAV GUIDANCE EVEN WITH
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT ARE ONGOING. LARGE DIURNAL RANGE XPCTD
MONDAY AS TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE HIGHER WITH LOW TO MID 80 READINGS XPCTD
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. /ALLEN/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER...ALONG WITH WARMING
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...
WHILE SLOWLY DRAGGING AN EQUALLY WEAKENING BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY WASHOUT THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN DECENT CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT LEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...THE NORTH WINDS 8-12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL
BECOME NEAR CALM THIS EVENING. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED
MONDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND 11Z MONDAY MORNING THAT WILL DISSIPATE BY
14Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  76  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      41  76  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     44  78  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   47  79  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       44  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  78  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  76  54  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/19/22