000
FXUS64 KJAN 150853
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP A STEADY YET SUBTLE FLOW OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SLOWLY
CREEP UP A BIT EACH DAY.  FOR TODAY...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH WILL KEEP A PRETTY FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE REGION.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE DAY.  AS THIS HAPPENS...LOOK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS A TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND DEPARTING
UPPER RIDGE.  COOLING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY THE DELTA REGION...LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE ON THE MILD SIDE AS
THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION.  ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS EVEN A STORM OR TWO OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MEAGER MOISTURE FIELDS WILL STRONGLY
LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION.  WITH A GOOD
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S...WHILE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FALL INTO
THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO OFFER A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER SCENARIO
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING
S/WV WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. DESPITE THIS...THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SOME
WEAK LIFT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THERE WILL BE CONTINUED S/SW FLOW
HELPING TO INCREASE OR HOLD ONTO DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE APPRECIABLE
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS THE BUILDING/STRENGTHENING CAP WHICH IS A
REASONABLE RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING.
HOWEVER...EACH OF THE MAIN FORECAST MODELS HANDLE THE SITUATION
DIFFERENTLY AS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. SINCE THE ONE THING THEY ALL AGREE ON IS THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...WILL LEAN ON THE DRIER MODEL (THE GFS) AND ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE N/NE PARTS OF THE CWA.

FOR SAT-MON...NEGATIVE THETA E ADV TAKES HOLD AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP GENERALLY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. CAPPING WILL ALSO HOLD FIRM AND KEEP PRECIP POTENTIAL AT
BAY. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO HIT
90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. ACTUALLY...925-850MB
FORECAST TEMPS SUPPORT 89-93 DEGREES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WET/COOL
CONDITIONS THE AREA HAS SEEN...WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS POTENTIAL AS
TYPICALLY WHEN WE COME OUT OF WET/COOL PERIODS...WE NEED SOME TIME
TO DRY OUT BEFORE WE CAN TRULY REACH 90 OR LOWER 90S.

FOR TUE-WED...WE BEGIN TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE MID SOUTH AND BRINGING DECENT RAIN/STORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS TO
SLOW THE FRONT SOME WITH IT AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY ON WED. WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING FOR THE FRONT...IT COULD ARRIVE ANYTIME
BETWEEN TUE-THU. GUIDANCE POPS INDICATE THIS AND HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
POPS FOR TUE-WED. THIS FITS THE SITUATION WELL AND WILL FOLLOW. AS
FOR TEMPS...GFS GUIDANCE WAS REALLY WARM FOR WED AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO BASED OFF THE PROXIMITY OF THE COOL FRONT AND
INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 8-13 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 17 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE DELTA REGION...KGLH AND KGWO.  WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AND RANGE BETWEEN 3-6 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE DELTA REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  58  84  65 /   5  13  18  20
MERIDIAN      85  56  84  62 /   0  12  15  22
VICKSBURG     83  59  83  66 /   8  16  27  18
HATTIESBURG   85  59  84  64 /   0  10  12   9
NATCHEZ       81  59  83  64 /   4  16  14  10
GREENVILLE    83  62  82  65 /   6  23  30  31
GREENWOOD     84  60  83  63 /   4  15  24  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/CME