000
FXUS64 KJAN 172016
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
316 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY TONIGHT. STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN OCCURRING
OVER GRENADA THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE COUNTY...BUT THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH A CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH THE JAN MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING A
PRETTY STRONG CAP AROUND H700. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND RISING HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS OVER THE
DELTA AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORMS DO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY WITH VERY WARM TEMPS UP NEAR 90. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED BELOW.
/15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EDGE TO THE EAST MONDAY
BUT WILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN HUMID
AFTERNOONS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HANG AROUND
RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR MORNING LOW TEMPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER WRN ZONES BY
TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX
REGION...INCREASING TO 1.5-1.8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE CAP
WEAKENS. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTN OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA
THAT MAY IMPACT AREAS EAST OF I-55 AND N OF I-20 THRU THE AFTN.
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVRNGT HRS ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE BEFORE MOVING EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS W/WIND GUSTS TO 50-60MPH/HAIL/PSBLY A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS AREA THRU 23Z. SFC WINDS WL REMAIN SLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-18KTS OR SO PSBL THIS AFTN. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  87  68  88 /  16  10   6   9
MERIDIAN      67  87  66  88 /  23   9  11   9
VICKSBURG     68  87  67  89 /  11   8   4   9
HATTIESBURG   68  88  67  88 /   8   6   8  11
NATCHEZ       68  87  68  87 /   5   4   6  11
GREENVILLE    70  87  69  88 /  13  14   4  10
GREENWOOD     69  88  69  88 /  30  17   7  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/BK