000
FXUS64 KJAN 120221 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.UPDATE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PATCHY LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EVENING. SOME
SHALLOW LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10Z AND LAST TO NEAR 14Z
TOMORROW. /GRG/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN QUITE
EVIDENT TODAY AND MANIFESTED IN NO CONVECTION OVER THE REGION AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 90 TO 94 DEGREES. MOISTURE
TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE HAS COMBINED WITH THE
HEAT AND LED TO HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT DEFINITELY QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN WE HAVE THUS FAR
EXPERIENCED THIS WARM SEASON.

MUCH THE SAME IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LIKELY SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN SOUTHERN ZONES. THESE
EARLY LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HEAT ACROSS
THE BOARD BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGES
PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY. RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 100S...ALTHOUGH BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN.

THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY TURN OUT TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS
THE RIDGE SHARPENS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE TRYING
TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE FEATURE. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ENHANCE
VERY WARM WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THUS PROMOTE GREATER MIXING
FOR OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK ANOTHER DEGREE (OR PERHAPS
TWO) HOTTER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN WILL BE THE CASE TOMORROW ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH. THE END RESULT SHOULD AGAIN BE
MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING FROM 100-105 DEGREES
AND A HEAT ADVISORY NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. THE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED WAVE OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO PUSH A
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY...INTO AN AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL MS THAT POSSESSES AT LEAST
2500 TO 3500 J/KG MLCAPE. THERMAL CAPPING ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR REGION AND WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FURTHER EAST INTO AL AND ANY CLUSTERING STORMS WOULD THEN
LIKELY HAVE A TENDENCY TO MIGRATE SOUTHWEST. POPS INCREASED A LITTLE
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST MS ZONES DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONFIDENCE GLEANED FROM NUMERICAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WHETHER ANY TSTORMS INITIATE STILL EXISTS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS
ADVERTISED RISKS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH ANY OF THESE POTENTIAL
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS QUITE VALID. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION. FOR MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS
TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STRONG MCS CLUSTER TO CROSS
THE REGION FOR MONDAY. KEPT SOME LOW DIURNAL POPS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BETTER POPS FOR MONDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. WENT CLOSE TO MEX AND SOME GMOS GUIDANCE.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX POPS ON
THURSDAY...THEN WENT CLOSE TO IT ON SUNDAY...THEN CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
POPS WITH SECOND MCS POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  72  96 /   0   1   1   9
MERIDIAN      67  94  69  96 /   0   1   1  17
VICKSBURG     70  94  70  96 /   0   0   0   5
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  97 /   2   5   5   6
NATCHEZ       71  92  71  95 /   0   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    72  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  13
GREENWOOD     71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

27/GRG/BB/17