000
FXUS64 KJAN 180046 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
746 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...THE AREA IS IN A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LULL AFTER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TODAY PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT LATER ON TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY RE-DEVELOP AFTER
06-08Z ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFTER
10-12Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND MORE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PERIOD AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED HIGH MAV MOS GUIDANCE
POPS...BUT INCREASED POPS SOME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOUTHWARD TRENDS IN GUIDANCE QPF
FIELDS. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TRYING TO PINPOINT
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE
DIFFICULT IN THIS PATTERN GIVEN LITTLE HELP FROM EXPLICIT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. WILL THERE KEEP THE FORECAST MORE GENERAL WITH THE IDEA
THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BETTER DAYTIME HEATING MAY TAKE PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY. CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER IN THE WORK WEEK.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AS THE RIDGE BUILT IN FRIDAY...HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM 95-97.  GIVEN EXPECTED WET GROUND CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME...FELT THESE WERE TOO HIGH.  THEREFORE I KNOCKED OFF 2-3
DEGREES AND NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM 92-94 ON FRIDAY.  ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH GUIDANCE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE. /19/EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/15/EC/19