Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 200258
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1058 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTED
SOUTHWESTWARD OFF COLLIER COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND NOW IS WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. OTHER THAN THIS...THE SERVICE AREA HAS BEEN
RAIN-FREE ALL DAY. THE KEY WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION
REVEALED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE VERTICAL PROFILE. HOWEVER...
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY AND DRY AIR WAS
PRESENT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. OBVIOUSLY...THIS
ENVIRONMENT HAS SUPPRESSED ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAKS OF DEEP...MOIST
CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE AXIS WELL NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS SETUP IS
FACILITATING MAINTENANCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F...WITH DEWPOINTS
JUST UNDER 70F. LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER 70S. A SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOIST LAYER IS
LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND THIS MAY INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY OVER THAT WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ON TARGET...
AND IN NO NEED OF ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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