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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221508
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1110 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX
DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND
ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...
ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
SEASONABLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT NEAR THE UPPER END OF ALL NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES DEVELOPING NEAR OR DIRECTLY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLOUD LINE EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY
22ND...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 28 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...
THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES IS THE WARMEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

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