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000
FXUS62 KKEY 161427
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A FEW CLOUD STREETS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THIS
MORNING ARE HITTING THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AND SPREADING OUT
SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING IN FROM
ANDROS SO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE MIDDLE
KEYS WESTWARD AS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE KBYX RADAR MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND NORTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS. WINDS HAVE SURGED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND TURNED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS EXPECTED.

.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FURTHER EAST. AS
THIS OCCURS EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT EXPECT AN INCREASE WITH
RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL PROFILE SHOWING VEERING WINDS ALOFT...AND LITTLE...IF ANY
INHIBITION. THEN FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER PATTERN MAY ADD
SOME MORE LIFTING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET PASSES OVER THE
KEYS ENHANCING EVACUATION FROM THE MID LAYERS. WITH THIS IN MIND
AGREE WITH ADDING THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALLING ON THE
KEYS COASTAL WATERS...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z/17TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH CLOUD BASES EXPECTED NEAR 030 AND 050 AND
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AT AROUND 050. MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1917...THE LOWEST RECORDED
TEMPERATURE FOR THE KEY WEST AREA WAS 64 DEGREES IN 1917. THIS
RECORD STILL STANDS TODAY 96 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............APA
DATA COLLECTION/CLIMATE.......VICKERY

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