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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241808
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
208 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND SUNNY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE 85-90F RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. THE
LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH EARLIER WAS DETECTED BY KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...IS NOW DISSIPATING JUST NORTH OF THE
CUBAN COAST. LARGE-SCALE SINKING PREVAILS WITH A LIGHT...DIFLUENT
SURFACE FLOW. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEA BREEZES
INITIATING OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
FORM OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FEW
CYCLES. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN INTENSIFYING AND EXPANDING CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL
WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS SHIFT...
LOCAL BREEZES WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND FRESHEN BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OF PRESENT WILL BE REPLACED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUPPORTING SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES. HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT...TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BREEZY PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EYW AND
MTH. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...SHIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. AFTER RAIN-FREE WEATHER TODAY...VERY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  87  77  86 / 10 20 10 10
MARATHON  78  90  77  88 / 10 20 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

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