Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 190234
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE KEY WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE STRATIFICATION. HOWEVER...STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ENERGY WAS PRESENT AT LOW ALTITUDES...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR. SUCH A COMBINATION IS LETHAL TO MOST YOUNG CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS...AND INDEED...WE HAVE SEEN VERY FEW SHOWERS WITHIN RADAR
RANGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LAYER OF WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLIES LESS THAN 10000 FEET THICK IS OVERLAID BY FAST FLOW FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE TRAJECTORIES IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC THIS EVENING THAN
24 HOURS AGO...AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. IN ANY CASE...
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT BUT NON-ZERO OVERNIGHT AS
REMNANT OUTFLOWS COULD FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE FORECASTS ARE ON
TRACK...SO NO UPDATING IS REQUIRED.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP...
ESPECIALLY LATE.
&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE DRY AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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