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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181348
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2011

A DRY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW SMALL AND LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A
PERSISTENT...EAST-WEST ALIGNED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS
OUR MARINE AREA...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE (PWAT 1.93 INCHES) BUT WITH A FEW DISTINCT DRY AND STABLE
LAYERS BELOW 850 MB. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY REACHES UP TO NEAR
600 MB...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND CHAOTIC.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING WITH A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC...EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE HOLDING FIRM ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. FURTHERMORE...WITHIN THE FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...A
CHUNK OF THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) HAS MIGRATED INTO THE BAHAMIAN
CHAIN AND INTO OUR REGION. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DRIER
AIR ALONG WITH AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TO BE EVIDENT IN THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING. AN ABUNDANCE OF INTENSE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB NEAR 90 DEGREES. DUE TO DRIER AND STABLE
AIR FILTERING IN...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO
REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING AND LOWER POPS TO 10 PERCENT.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13 KNOTS
AT 1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE  KBYX
VWP. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEAKENING A TAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...EXPECT A SUBTLE LULL ON KEYS COASTAL WATERS MAINLY ON
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN A
DECREASING TREND TO NEAR 10 KNOTS ON THESE WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS ON THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE...WILL INSERT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18/06Z AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECT ISLAND CLOUD LINES TO FORM...BUT THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD TRANSPORT THESE CLOUD LINES NORTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THEY DEVELOP.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1972...2.67 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL ON JUNE
18TH...WHICH STANDS 41 YEARS LATER.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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