665
FXUS64 KLIX 301735
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Dense fog continues to persist over the River Parishes and
portions of metro Baton Rouge. Satellite analysis and traffic
cameras show that the fog bank has not yet begun to erode
substantially and that visibilties remain extremely reduced. 12z
sounding data does show some very dry air in the mid-levels, and
this will begin to mix down into the boundary layer as
temperatures warm over the next hour or two. This will allow the
fog bank to begin eroding, and have only extended the advisory for
western portions of the CWA by an hour until 10 AM. Some patchy
fog may linger beyond 10 AM, but expect to see clear conditions in
place by 1030 to 11 AM.  PG

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Fog will be the weather maker this morning. Most locations should
fall below 1/2 mile and many less than 1/4 mile. Dense fog advisory
has been posted for most of the area. The only locations that may
not have an issue with this is the eastern coastline of LA and some
of coastal Mississippi. This is radiation fog so it will need very
little to no wind, no cloud cover and mainly outside heat islands.
The cloudy skies are hanging on over areas where the dense fog
advisory is not valid. This cloud cover is expected to hand on
through sunrise in these areas. Some sh/ts are also hangin on over
Jackson Co. this morning. But as the cloud cover slowly moves east,
we may need to bring these areas in for fog as well. But current
thinking is that these cloudy areas should be clear(of fog) for now.
The moisture is now in place for fog again tonight. And again, it
will be a radiation fog night as well so areas where there are no
cloudy cover and calm winds will likely see this again tonight/Wed
morning. A weak trough axis exists from Houston to the SE well
offshore. This will begin to move back to the north later today and
should be near or just on the coast by Wed. It may be just enough to
help a few sh/ts develop with heating. Widespread rain or storms are
not expected with this, but it could bring some rain to areas in and
around the Atchafalaya Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Fog will remain a concern for Wed night/Thu morning as well as long
as we still have enough moisture trapped in the BL. We should also
see a similar type of event that occurred over our area yesterday.
But this time, it may be farther north. An MCS feature looks to
break away from the front over central TX Thursday and move rapidly
east along the interstate 20 corridor. At the same time, a cold
front will orient east/west near the Missouri/Arkansas line and
stall. This will help keep an unsettled environment along and south
of this line as several disturbances move over and south of this
line for the next several days Thursday. We will need to look at
each day individually later this week to break down whether we will
get some of this activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Drier air has mixed down into the boundary layer this afternoon,
and this has allowed for prevailing VFR conditions to take hold at
all of the terminals. These VFR conditions will persist through
around 10z tomorrow, but another inversion will result in boundary
layer decoupling once again after 10z. Fog probabiltiies are
highest at GPT, NEW, and MSY, and have included prevailing IFR
ceilings of 300 to 500 feet and MVFR visibilties of 3 to 5 miles
in the forecast from 10z to 14z at these terminals. At MCB, fog
probabilities are lower, but have opted to include a period of IFR
conditions between 11z and 13z. After 14z, drier air will mix into
the boundary layer, and a return to VFR conditions at all of the
terminals is expected. PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mainly IFR to LIFR cigs and vis this morning for most areas. This
will lift into VFR levels by mid morning. There is a good
possibility of FG developing at some terminals again tonight/Wed
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Light and variable winds will begin to become SE today and should
stay this way through this fcast remaining around 10kt for the most
part.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  86  64  84 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  67  88  69  87 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  66  87  67  86 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  69  86  71  86 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  66  84  67  83 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  64  88  64  87 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...TE