843
FXUS64 KLIX 282347
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
647 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Some isolated showers and occasional thunderstorm is ongoing now
though the next few hours due to some warm advection but not a lot
of environmental support for these storms so they should be fairly
weak and short lived with a few spots accumulating up to maybe 0.1
in of rain.
Otherwise, the other concern for the very short term is the elevated
gusty winds due to a tightened pressure gradient between low
pressure up to our northwest and high pressure to our east. With
high pressure drifting eastward, winds have decreased slightly. But
still is gusty at times, so will let the current wind advisory ride
though expiration.
Also, due to the southeasterly winds, eastern facing shores will
have some slight coastal flooding issues with the wind piling the
water up during a high tide cycle later this evening. Tides should
peak early tonight and then begin dropping. As the winds should be
on the decrease by the time the next high tide cycle rolls though,
it`ll be allowed to expire this evening.

Moving into tomorrow morning, a line of convection is forecasted to
move though the area. Timing is still a bit uncertain as it depends
on the formation of convection in eastern Texas and how quickly it
then moves here. Right now there are a few storms starting to bloom up
at the tail end of a decaying line of convection near eastern
TX/western LA. CAMs currently have the line coming in a bit
earlier (14-15z in entering the CWA) but the globals/NBM has it a
bit later. Biggest concern for this line will be the potential for
heavy rain. Although it has been relatively dry (other than
today), these storms will likely be efficient rainmakers. PW
values of around 1.3-1.5in and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE should be
sufficient to maintain these storms along with forcing from a
shortwave passing though Arkansas/N Louisiana. Biggest unknown
will be just where the heaviest rain will drop. Although this line
should be relatively progressive, highly efficient rainfall could
easily overwhelm localized areas. The best severe convective
potential appears to be just to our west but definitely can`t rule
out some strong storms or maybe a severe one or two. As it
continues to push eastward into our area, the environmental
support will continue to decrease so the current thinking is it`ll
weaken as it moves eastward towards Mississippi but if it gets
organized enough in east TX/west LA it could maintain itself a bit
further. Once the line passes though it`ll have a minor impact on
the lows tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Going into the day on Tuesday, we get right back into onshore return
flow following showers/storms the day prior, with isolated showers
around within increasing deep rich Gulf return flow. No adjustments
needed against NBM PoPs introducing around 30-40% chances primarily
in the afternoon following peak diurnal heating. Might see a few
intervals of disorganized showers/storms again on Wednesday in a
progressive WSW/ENE flow and embedded subtle H5 impulses ride the
flow, but the main storm track will remain well to our west and
north as ridging dominates the SE US, providing multiple rounds of
severe weather targeting the Plains states. Seeing some long-range
trends hint at a front slowing/stalling across the area late week
into the weekend, and with persistent H5 impulses riding the quasi-
zonal flow aloft may introduce periods of showers/storms, perhaps an
uptick in coverage this weekend. Too soon to narrow down
timing/specifics, but will mention that there are no major
indications of widespread heavy rain/severe weather outside of hit-
or-miss shower/storm chances. Otherwise, only notable edits in the
long range were to nudge up temperatures slightly above
deterministic suggested values, with many areas reaching the mid
80`s to some upper 80`s especially by late week, persistently around
3-8 degrees above average for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Patchy MVFR ceilings are impacting most terminals this evening as
low-level moisture advection continues across the area. Expect the
MVFR ceilings to become more widespread overnight as the moisture
pools ahead of an approaching thunderstorm complex. The complex
should impact the western terminals by late morning and will
impact all terminals throughout the morning and afternoon as it
progresses eastward. When the line of storms passes, expect mostly
30-40 mph westerly gusts with it. After the complex exits in the
early evening, MVFR ceilings look to hang around in its wake, and
gusty southeast flow resumes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong winds up to 35-40 knots remain on the coastal waters through
late tonight before winds start to slowly decrease. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected tomorrow morning as a line is forecasted
to pass though the area from the early to mid morning hours though
the afternoon. By the time it makes it to the Gulf waters, it likely
will not be too strong but can`t completely rule that out. There
might be a need for exercise caution headlines at some point
tomorrow night, but overall the conditions will become more benign
with light onshore flow. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  78  62  84 /  10  90  60  40
BTR  70  82  66  87 /  20  90  40  50
ASD  70  83  65  85 /  10  80  60  50
MSY  72  83  68  84 /  10  80  50  50
GPT  70  81  66  82 /  10  60  60  50
PQL  67  83  65  84 /   0  40  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
     070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BL