Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000 FXUS64 KMOB 242338 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .DISCUSSION...
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Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
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&& .AVIATION...
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00Z issuance...VFR to MVFR ceilings expected tonight with southeasterly winds relaxing to around 10 knots. Gusty southerly winds redevelop by 25.16z as showers and thunderstorms approach from the west. Exact timing of the heaviest thunderstorm activity remains uncertain, but current guidance has the most concentrated activity moving west to east across the local area from 25.18z into the first few hours of the following forecast period. /49
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/issued 337 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...An upper low over the OK/TX panhandle moves east, to over the mid Mississippi River Valley tonight through Saturday. The associated surface low moves east over the Plains until it reaches the Mississippi River Saturday morning, then meanders north. Even with a bit of weakening in the organization of the system as it wobbles eastward, the forecast is kept under moderate to strong onshore flow through the first 24hrs of the forecast. Winds today have been bumping advisory criteria, but have been showing a slow downward trend through the day. Overnight, with the onshore flow continuing and overcast skies, am expecting overnight temps to remain well above seasonal levels. With winds remaining on the moderate side, am expecting mostly stratus with little fog development. As the system moves towards the area overnight, showers and a few thunderstorms will being to move over far western portions of the forecast area and mainly towards sunrise. Lows overnight are expected to range from the upper 50s northeast to mid 60s along the coast and southwest. Saturday, the possibility of severe weather continues as the upper system works its way to the Mississippi River. A lobe of energy swings around the base of the main system as it begins a northeast jog Saturday afternoon. With MUCAPE values topping out around 1500j/kg, plus or minus, coming together with 0-3km Helicity values of 100-200m^2/s^2. Add in mid and upper level enhancement from jet maxes along the shortwave lobe swinging around the main upper lobe and moving over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and SPC has put essentially the entire FA under a slight risk, with better chances for severe west of a Greenville AL to Pensacola FL line. With good rotational wind shear, some organized rotating cells mixing in with the band of storms as the move across the forecast area Saturday will bring mainly damaging winds, though a tornado can not be ruled out, although this threat appears to be very limited at this time. Mid level lapse rates up to around 6.8 C/KM Saturday afternoon, so the risk of large hail will also continue with the stronger updrafts. Timing with the current guidance has the band moving into the western portions of the forecast area late morning into early afternoon, continuing east across the remainder of the forecast area during the late afternoon and then weakening and moving east of the area by mid/late evening. Not to forget, high temps Saturday generally in the mid 70s. 16/SAM SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Upper trof axis shifts east of our area by midnight saturday (06z Sunday), with surface trof still lagging back to the west. With this the potential for strong/severe storms diminishes and ends during the evening hours Saturday, although some lingering showers and storms will remain possible into late Saturday night. Forecast area between systems on Sunday, then another weather system moves rapidly east across the interior eastern portion of the country late Monday through Monday night, brining another chance for showers and storms. For now, any severe threat with that over our area looks very limited. Overnight lows in the lower 60s through the period, daytime highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. 12/DS LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Very progressive pattern continues through long term period. Previously mentioned system departs to the east by midday Tuesday with a brief period of ridging over the forecast area Wednesday before yet another system approaches from the west by early Thursday. Some indications that this late week system may have the potential to be a little more dynamic than previous few, and will have to monitor. Primary affects over our area at this point look to be late Thursday into early Friday. Daytime highs remaining above normal, mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s through the period. Likewise for overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. 12/DS MARINE...An approaching system from the west combined with a surface ridge stretching southwest along the East coast will continue to create moderate to strong onshore flow into Sunday before becoming lighter. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the marine area, and has now been extended through 7PM Saturday evening. Flow will remain onshore through the forecast, with another system passing Monday night. This system will bring a slight increase in the winds once again late Monday into Monday night. 16/SAM
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&& .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

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