Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000 FXUS64 KMOB 232006 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 306 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...
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A greater coverage of storms has failed to develop along the residual boundary across the coastal counties. This is likely due to lack of upper level forcing and the loss of low level convergence as winds north of the boundary have also switched back to south and southwest. Therefore, the risk of flash flooding has diminished and we have cancelled the remainder of the Flash Flood Watch. However, isolated to scattered storms are still expected over southern portions of the area through early this evening with MLCAPES of 1500-2000 J/kg. Isolated lighter showers possible further inland. The heavier storms could result in a few localized minor flooding issues. This convection should diminish by mid to late evening with the next round of precipitation moving in overnight in association with the main upper level trough and cold front. Rain chances becoming likely in the northwest zones after midnight with better rain chances spreading east through the early morning hours. Instability will be limited over land, so only a few thunderstorms are expected with the potential for additional heavy rain low. The best rain chances will be found across the far eastern zones Wednesday morning after sunrise where there will be an opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize and be supportive of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances diminish from west to east as the day progresses with the advection of drier air into the region. Lows tonight will be fairly mild in the mid to upper 60s with highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Did not deviate from guidance. 34/JFB .SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...A cooler and drier airmass moves into the region Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper trough moves toward the east coast. This will place the central Gulf Coast in a northwest flow aloft with building high pressure at the sfc. The result will be clear skies with below normal temps Wed night and Thursday. The sfc high quickly moves east Thursday night into Friday with a return flow setting up, resulting in warmer temps and increasing moisture late in the period. /13 .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Moisture will continue to increase across the region through the weekend as another weak front begins to make slow progress southward toward the Gulf Coast. Much of the area remains dry on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning by Sunday and continuing through Tuesday as the weak boundary stalls across the region. The coverage of showers and storms will be most numerous during peak heating hours, before decreasing at night. Highs will generally be in the mid and upper 80s away from the coast with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. /13
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&& .MARINE...
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Southwest winds have been very strong today over the coastal waters, measured between 20 to 30 kt. Winds are expected to gradually diminish tonight, especially over the bays. Will continue the Small Craft Advisory for the bays until 7pm. Expect winds to diminish below advisory levels after this, but we will have to carefully monitor observations. Over the Gulf waters, winds will likely diminish below 20 kt at times late tonight, but given winds will pick back up on Wednesday, will continue to advisory through the night. Speaking of Wednesday, west to northwest winds will increase through the day as the cold front passes through. Boaters will need to exercise caution on the bays as winds increase to 15-20 kt with 20-25 kt expected over the Gulf waters. An onshore flow becomes reestablished by Friday as high pressure moves east across the FL peninsula and another storm system develops over the Plains. Southerly winds will become moderate at times. 34/JFB
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile 66 80 56 82 / 50 40 0 0 Pensacola 69 81 60 80 / 50 50 10 0 Destin 72 82 64 79 / 50 60 10 0 Evergreen 64 79 54 80 / 50 50 10 0 Waynesboro 62 76 52 80 / 60 30 10 0 Camden 63 77 54 79 / 50 40 20 0 Crestview 69 81 57 81 / 50 60 10 0
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&& .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>635. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.
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