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000
FXUS64 KMOB 170949
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
449 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY THE SECOND
OF TWO WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING OR LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS OF LOWER MS LATER THIS MORNING
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUNS IT NOW APPEARS TODAYS PRECIP TO THE WEST WILL FORM A LITTLE
LATER THAN YESTERDAY EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS POPS
MOSTLY BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER
SE MS AND EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF SW AL AFFECTING MOSTLY MOBILE CO.
WITH GOOD HEATING DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS GENERALLY WERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE SETS UP...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE STRETCHING FROM FROM WIGGINS MS TO EVERGREEN AL. AGAIN THE
COVERAGE IS STILL AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON
SATURDAY AS BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO
GEORGIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.2 INCHES ACROSS
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH VALUES NEAR 1.6 ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA.
GIVEN THE RESIDUAL TROUGHING NEARBY COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
LEVELS AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY ALSO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WELL INLAND
WITH LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. LOWS WILL BE MILD AND
MUGGY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 90 EXPECTED WELL INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 80S CONTINUING
CLOSER TO THE COAST GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE LAND/SEA TEMP CONTRAST WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE EACH DAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY
MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED-THU WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
DECREASING...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE WEAKENING UPPER
RIDGE...1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE BY
MIDWEEK WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO
VALUES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z TODAY THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SAT THEN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SAT. EXPECT BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SCT LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
SAT. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS...MOSTLY NEAR OR OVER
KMOB AND KBFM. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. BETTER WINDS AND WAVES WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH DAY. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  67  85  67  86 /  20  10  10  10  05
PENSACOLA   82  69  82  70  83 /  10  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      79  69  80  70  80 /  05  10  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   87  65  88  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  10
WAYNESBORO  85  67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN      87  65  88  66  88 /  20  20  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   87  63  88  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$