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000
FXUS64 KMOB 222344 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AREAS OF FOG
AGAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 23.09Z.
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH REGARD TO ANY LINGERING FOG
AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING AFTER MID MORNING
THURSDAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROF
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK WITH THESE
FEATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ARE PRESENT.
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. QPF VALUES GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO OR A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO...LOWER/MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S LOWER 70S COASTAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO MOST LOCATIONS...UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. 12/DS

AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROF TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR HARD TO RESOLVE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY SURFACE FOCUS
FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES...COULD SEE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. GIVEN THE WEAKENED OR
WEAKENING STATE OF FRONT...LAYER LIFT ALSO LOOKS WEAK SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF STORMS MOSTLY 10%. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN LOWS INTO THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH DAILY HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS MODERATING WELL INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. 10/21

MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING INTO THE MARINE AREA WHILE
DISSIPATING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES => NUMERICAL RATINGS AT OR ABOVE 75 FOR MANY AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  90  66  88  57 /  20  00  10  05  00
PENSACOLA   70  88  70  88  61 /  20  00  10  05  00
DESTIN      72  81  71  86  64 /  20  00  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   64  93  63  86  53 /  20  05  10  05  00
WAYNESBORO  64  93  62  85  52 /  10  05  10  05  00
CAMDEN      64  92  62  83  52 /  20  05  10  05  00
CRESTVIEW   63  94  64  89  53 /  20  00  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$