684
FXUS64 KMOB 060917
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

An upper-level shortwave impulse, currently located over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, will continue to lift
northeastward throughout the day today. In its wake, an upper
ridge axis begins moving overhead tonight and shifts to our east
on Tuesday. Overall, though, a general zonal flow pattern will
prevail through the period. At the surface, a persistent high
pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow
across our area, keeping us in a summer-like pattern. For today,
a few isolated warm air advection showers will be possible this
morning. Very similar to the past few days, diurnal heating, in
combination with weak forcing from the shortwave aloft and ample
moisture in place, should allow for isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms to develop during the afternoon, primarily over
the northern half of our CWA. Rain chances quickly decrease by
the evening and overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating
and the ridge axis moving overhead. Tomorrow`s coverage is a
little less certain as the ridge axis lingers overhead. Plenty of
instability and moisture continues to reside over the area, but
with a lack of any large scale lift, expecting only spotty
showers/storms at best, with the highest chances (~30 percent)
over our northwestern counties (as this region is further from the
ridge axis).

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs
ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s
inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A
Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight,
becoming a High risk tomorrow. /96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Dry conditions are expected for the short term period as an upper
ridge over the Gulf builds a bit further north, bringing
subsidence to the local area. This subsidence, paired with the
continued low-level warm air advection off the Gulf, will help to
give way to our warmest day of the year thus far. Highs on
Wednesday are forecast to rise into the mid 80s along the coast,
and the upper 80s to low 90s inland (potentially a few localized
spots reaching the mid 90s). With dew points in the upper 60s to
low 70s, heat indices will likely rise into the upper 90s for much
of the area, and even close to the 100 degree mark in a few
spots. Lows remain very mild, with temperatures only dropping into
the low to mid 70s. A High Risk of rip currents continues through
the period. /96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Latest ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a potent upper
level trough on the order of 2 standard deviations below the mean digging
southward out of the Midwest beginning on Thursday. In advance of
the main trough, there appears to be a lead shortwave that moves
east over the top of the mid and upper ridge still in place along
the north central Gulf Coast. Ongoing convection over the Mid
South will likely spread southeastward Wednesday night and
approach northeast portions of the forecast area by Thursday
morning. As the convection advances southeast, it will likely
begin to weaken as large scale ascent departs and it moves under
an area of stronger ridging aloft. Northeastern portions of the
area will likely experience a round of showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms in the morning with this weakening cluster.

Strong daytime heating is expected through the day Thursday along
and south of the area affected by morning storms. Temperatures
should heat well into the upper 80s to lower 90s in these areas
with dewpoints remaining in the lower to middle 70s, which is
supported by the latest ensemble probabilities of greater than 50%
for dewpoints of greater than 74 degrees (highest along the
coast). This results in the development of strong instability by
Thursday afternoon.

A stronger mid level shortwave will eject southeast through the
base of the mean upper trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley
by Thursday evening. Convection is expected to erupt to our west
and quickly grow upscale as lowering mid level heights spread over
the moderately unstable airmass. This convection should evolve
along a surface boundary laid out from the Thursday morning
convective outflow. Latest ensemble guidance probabilities are
quite high at this time (60-80%) for SBCAPES greater than 1500j/kg
and deep layer shear in excess of 40 kts. This combination of
shear and instability would support a severe weather threat
Thursday evening into early Friday morning across the north
central Gulf Coast. At this time the set up favors more of a
damaging wind and large hail threat with mainly long straight
hodographs. Low level flow looks to be a bit weaker at this point
which would tend to limit the tornado potential. We are still
several days from this potential event, so we will be refining
details over the next few days.

The upper trough will swing through the region late Thursday night
into Friday with a cold front advancing south across our area.
Cooler temperatures along with much lower humidity levels should
filter in along with a period of dry weather for Friday night
through the first half of the weekend. Another upper trough
digging across the Central Plains by the end of the weekend into
the first part of next week will bring a returning chance for
showers and storms at the end of the extended forecast period.
/JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

An onshore flow will persist through much of the week,
with wind speeds slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of the
week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near
the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.
Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 to 4 feet by the
middle to latter part of the week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  71  88  72  89  74  89  68 /  20   0  10   0   0   0  40  50
Pensacola   84  73  85  74  86  76  86  71 /  10  10  10   0  10   0  40  40
Destin      82  73  83  74  85  76  84  72 /  10   0  10   0   0   0  20  40
Evergreen   88  68  89  69  92  72  89  65 /  30   0  20   0  10  10  50  60
Waynesboro  88  69  89  70  92  72  89  64 /  30  10  30   0  10  20  50  60
Camden      88  68  89  70  93  72  88  64 /  30  10  30  10  10  20  60  60
Crestview   88  67  89  68  90  71  89  66 /  20   0  10   0  10   0  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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