National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMOB 201735 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...VCR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THE EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IFR LEVEL CIGS TO MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE FA.
AREAS EAST OF THE STRATUS INFLUX ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VISBYS DROP TO
IFR OR LOWER LEVELS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHERE THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IS FLEXIBLE ATTM...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY
ALONG THE MISS/AL STATE LINE.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...IN A PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...EXPECT MORE OF A SUNNY DAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR GOOD
INSOLATION AND WARMING. CONSIDERING MORE SUN...THE BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD
OCCURRING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS...THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIFTING INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COOLER GULF WATERS KEEP
BEACH TEMPERATURES MODIFIED INTO THE LOWER 80S THERE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAKE FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION. GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS WE SEE IN LOW TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...WILL TREND HIGHER
THAN THE MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. /10

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS
LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER TO RESULT IN DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT SOME. THIS WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
OF THE RIDGE...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-65...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FAR HOW
EAST THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF DEWPOINTS
ONCE AGAIN MIXING OUT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE RESIDUAL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
FOR NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. BY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INLAND COMBINED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH MLCAPES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 2000 J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE INLAND CWA DURING THE DAY
AND PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY GETS
SCOURED OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SO WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE COASTAL ZONES...BUT IT VERY WELL COULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
ALL AREAS. A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS BUT
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH...TO
ACROSS THE GULF...MAINTAINS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR THE COAST...OVER BAYS AND
SOUNDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAILY AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING
COASTAL SEA BREEZE. RAINFREE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH
A BIT MORE OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR SHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK...THE EXTENDED RANGE
WEATHER MODELS BRING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. SEAS TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS
WEEK...RANGING 1 TO 2 FEET. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  68  87  67  86 /  05  05  05  05  30
PENSACOLA   87  70  87  70  85 /  05  05  05  05  20
DESTIN      82  71  83  72  81 /  05  05  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   91  65  92  66  90 /  05  05  10  10  30
WAYNESBORO  90  65  90  66  86 /  05  05  10  10  40
CAMDEN      91  65  91  66  88 /  05  05  10  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  64  92  66  90 /  05  05  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$