970
FXUS64 KMOB 301745
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Area of SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across the Florida Panhandle and
southern Alabama north of JKA. Expect a slow eastward motion to
convection over the next few hours with PNS remaining with TSRA
through 21Z. Convection appears to stay north of JKA with mainly
MVFR cigs through the afternoon. At MOB/BFM, convection is well east
with an MVFR stratocu deck stretching west into southern
Mississippi. MVFR cigs appear to hold through much of the afternoon
then decreasing towards sunset.

High resolution model guidance signals some fog development
overnight at all TAF sites, especially north of coastal sites. Added
LIFR at MOB/BFM with some possibility of VLIFR in the predawn hours
whereas LIFR mainly in cigs at JKA/PNS. Conditions should improve
from fog back to VFR by late morning. /TAE

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A fairly vigorous shortwave through axis is moving east across the
forecast area this morning, and has initiated another round of
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over portions of the area,
especially down near the coastal areas of MS and AL. This newer
round of convection is somewhat limited in coverage however,
partially due to the stabilizing effect of the previous remnant MCS
boundary that moved across the area Monday evening. This area of
convection will spread east across the forecast area through the
morning hours, likely extending further inland with heating after
sunrise as the shortwave axis continues east across the area. The
orientation of the rain axis will allow for some training of heavier
cells, with some brief heavy rainfall rates possible at any one
location as the precip moves east across the area. Some brief
localized ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas could
be possible this morning, but no widespread flooding is expected.
Severe storms are not expected. By early this afternoon, the
shortwave axis will be east of our area and rains will end and skies
will begin to clear from west to east. Low to mid level ridging will
build over the forecast area in the wake of the shortwave, and no
rain is expected from late this afternoon through Wednesday. High
temperatures today should be in the lower 80s for most locations,
but some mid 80s over interior southeast MS (where we will likely
see longer duration of direct sunshine) and only mid to upper 70s
near the beaches with a moderating onshore wind flow coming in off
the Gulf. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 60s, but some upper 60s
to lower 70s possible along the beaches and barrier islands. It will
be warmer on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the mid and upper
80s over most interior locations but low to mid 80s closer to the
coast. DS/12

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

In the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an
upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer
southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the
week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is
well west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into
the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs pass Friday through
Sunday. The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the
bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs
to northwest and northern portions of the forecast area with each
passing trough, along with limiting rain chances to isolated to
low end scattered. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to
keep temperatures above to well above seasonal norms through the
period. High temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 well inland
with around 80s south of I-10 to the coast are expected. Low
temperatures are expected to range from around 60 to the low 60s
north of Highway 84 to mid 60s/upper 60s closer to and along the
coast. /16



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  87  64  86  65  85  65  86 /   0  10   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pensacola   66  84  66  84  67  83  67  84 /   0  10   0   0   0   0  10  10
Destin      68  82  67  84  69  82  70  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   61  88  59  91  62  89  63  89 /   0  10   0   0   0  10  10  20
Waynesboro  60  88  60  90  63  86  63  89 /   0  10   0  10  10  20  10  20
Camden      61  86  59  90  63  86  63  87 /   0  10   0  10   0  10  20  20
Crestview   62  89  60  91  61  89  62  89 /  10  10   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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