National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMOB 112320 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.AVIATION...(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...CURRENT FORECAST SHAPING UP TO BE A
TYPICAL SUMMER FORECAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN CONTROL. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH. OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY...WITH LIGHT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IMPEDING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. VISBYS DROPPING INTO MVFR LEVELS LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED
AREAS SEEING LEVELS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS TOWARDS SUNRISE.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...11.12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWS MAIN AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH STREAMLINES SHOWING SOUTHWEST EXTENSION HANGING
BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WESTWARD TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED EVENING STORM HERE AND THERE...NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN ZONES. WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG FORMATION WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS...NEAR 70 INTERIOR...MID 70S COAST. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
WEDNESDAY KEEPS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK WITH CHANCES 10% OR
LESS AND BRINGS A HOT DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID 90S. ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
HOTTER => HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO 105 OVER MANY AREAS. /10

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS...SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANWHILE MOVE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING TO NEAR THE
EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...
BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS GENERALLY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE BEACHES.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MS/AL/GA ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THURSDAY EVENING... POTENTIALLY
REACHING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WE MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. /21


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ON FRIDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE STALLED COLD
FRONT NEAR THE COAST. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DIGS OUT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...MAINTAINS A SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WIND. WIND SPEED STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOONS AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE DUE TO GOOD HEATING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOVES OFF
THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...LEADING TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS LOOK TO CHANGE LITTLE...BEING IN THE 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGES. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  94  73  94  73 /  05  05  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   76  93  77  93  77 /  05  05  05  10  20
DESTIN      77  89  77  89  77 /  05  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   70  97  72  97  72 /  05  05  05  10  30
WAYNESBORO  70  97  72  97  72 /  05  05  00  10  30
CAMDEN      70  97  71  97  72 /  05  05  00  10  30
CRESTVIEW   71  97  72  97  73 /  05  05  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/21