000
FXUS64 KMOB 152326 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...WITH
SOME MVFR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. AM EXPECTING THESE MVFR AREAS TO
BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH LOCAL MVFR VISBYS UNDER ISOLATED TSRA.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS ORIENTED
ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF PASCAGOULA...TO SOUTH OF MOBILE...
TO NEAR MILTON...TO JUST NORTH OF EGLIN AFB AS OF 2 PM CDT. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHICH SO FAR HAS ALIGNED WELL WITH THE
15-20 PERCENT POPS THAT ARE DRAWN WITHIN THIS GENERAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SEABREEZE...WHICH IS CREATING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE AFTERNOON THE WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM LOUISIANA
THROUGH GEORGIA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY...
WITH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYERS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW MAY LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA
SUNDAY...MOST NOTABLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE. WE WILL CARRY 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WE OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN RANGING FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S INLAND...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT
INDICES AGAIN LOOK TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 IN MOST PLACES. /21

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A LARGE UPPER HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND BECOME AN ELONGATED
WEST-EAST SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BRINGING MODERATE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. EXPECT MEAN RH ABOUT 60
PERCENT WITH LI AROUND -4 AND CAPE 2000-2800 MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS TRANSITING THE AREA BOTH DAYS
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
REBOUNDING AND INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE NOT MET. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE.
/77

&&

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WHILE A SECONDARY
HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT LATER IN THE WEEK
A WEAK SURFACE BASED TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HOWEVER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ARE STILL NOT MET.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALCULATIONS DIVERGE A BIT AT TAU=66 HR. THE EURO
AND GFS BOTH SHOW A RATHER STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM WHEREAS THE NAM DOES
NOT. THE NAM GETS BRIEFLY BACK IN SYNC BY TAU 72 BUT FALLS AWAY AGAIN
BY TAU 78. /77

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE SEAS REMAIN LOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  73  91  73 /  10  20  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  91  75  90  75 /  10  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  76  88  76 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  93  70  93  72 /  10  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  71  90  69  93  70 /  05  20  20  30  20
CAMDEN      70  93  70  93  72 /  05  20  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   71  93  69  93  71 /  10  30  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$