000
FXUS64 KMOB 152334
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIRRIFORM CEILINGS
BEGIN THE TAF PERIODS AND ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE LOWER ON THURSDAY
MORNING...CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR 3.5 KFT MAINTAINING PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  AFTER ANALYZING RUC/NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS AND CONSIDERING MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF CEILING
GUIDANCE...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 11-15Z FOR MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR 1.5 KFT BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
TO MAKE A PREVAILING CONDITION.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER AS ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. /29

&&

** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND THURSDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE WEST A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TX
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH 00Z FRI. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES BETTER MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOSTLY
ABOVE 10K FT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
DEPICT THIS WELL. AS A RESULT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING
LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LACK
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STILL DON`T SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
THROUGH THU THOUGH STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE FRONT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO NOTABLE CHANGES
TO LONG TERM FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES WHILE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC TO EASTERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE WELL UP INTO THE 80S. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES BREAK THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ZONES. VERY
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. SUMMER...IT SEEMS...HAS ARRIVED. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EAST INTO
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OVER INLAND BAYS
AND SOUNDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED. 34/JFB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND NORTHERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP RESULTING IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES
EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER DISPERSION INDICES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED MOSTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      60  82  65  84  66 /  05  10  00  10  05
PENSACOLA   65  82  68  82  67 /  00  10  05  10  05
DESTIN      66  80  68  80  68 /  00  10  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   56  86  61  88  63 /  00  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  55  84  64  85  64 /  10  10  05  10  05
CAMDEN      55  84  60  87  62 /  05  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  86  60  87  60 /  00  10  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$