000
FXUS64 KMOB 152047
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND THURSDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE WEST A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TX WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH 00Z
FRI. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES BETTER MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 10K FT. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND DEPICT THIS WELL. AS A
RESULT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS STILL DON`T SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THU THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY ALONG A
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO NOTABLE CHANGES
TO LONG TERM FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES WHILE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC TO EASTERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE WELL UP INTO THE 80S. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES BREAK THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ZONES. VERY
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. SUMMER...IT SEEMS...HAS ARRIVED. 12/DS


&&

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z THU FOLLOWED
BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z THU. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH
THIS SYSTEM ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING IS NOTED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON ON THU THOUGH DUE TO THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z THU INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF EAST
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OVER INLAND
BAYS AND SOUNDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED. 34/JFB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND NORTHERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST A BETTER ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP RESULTING IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY
BETTER DISPERSION INDICES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME BETTER
DEVELOPED MOSTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      60  82  65  84  66 /  05  10  00  10  05
PENSACOLA   65  82  68  82  67 /  00  10  05  10  05
DESTIN      66  80  68  80  68 /  00  10  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   56  86  61  88  63 /  00  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  55  84  64  85  64 /  10  10  05  10  05
CAMDEN      55  84  60  87  62 /  05  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  86  60  87  60 /  00  10  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$