000
FXUS64 KMOB 172330 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE COAST CAN SEE DROPS
IN CIGS DOWN INTO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA EXPECTED TUESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON...WITH DROPS INTO
MVFR LEVELS.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA ALONG...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR TODAY AND ON TUESDAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD MID
TO UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST TO MOST INLAND AREAS DEPICT A RATHER DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.80 TO
2.13 INCHES THROUGH TUE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON CAPES NEARING 2500
J/KG. WITH THE GOOD FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS
FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH TUE WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED CASE OF
WINDS OF 58 MPH OR BETTER. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
SHEAR THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUE. DUE TO THE DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO EXPECT BETTER CLOUDS
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TUE COMPARED TO THE COAST ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN LOWER 90S
TO THE NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LABRADOR REGION EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/LOWER APPALACHIAN REGION BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND DRIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS
AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 77/BD

&&

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. NUMEROUS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL VORTLOBES WILL ROTATE THROUGH ITS BASE AND BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DURING TIMES OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY GENERALLY OCCURRING MID AFTERNOON OR LATER UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. FEATURES CALCULATED BY THE EURO AND THE GFS ARE PHASING MUCH
MORE CLOSELY OF LATE AND THE NAM PHASES PROGRESSIVELY MORE CLOSELY
WITH THESE TWO WITHIN ITS OWN TIME DOMAIN. THE OMEGA BLOCK WE SAW
YESTERDAY IN THE WAVENUMBER 5 OUTPUT HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED BUT THERE
IS STILL A RIDGE THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
THU AFT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM 2 TO 3 FEET WITH
THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND 1 TO 2 FEET
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
32/EE

&&

.FIRE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA IN THE
40S AND 50S. AFTERNOON DISPERSION TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. DISPERSION WEDNESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 30S TO 40S. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  72  91  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
PENSACOLA   75  89  76  90  74 /  20  30  40  50  20
DESTIN      76  86  76  87  76 /  20  30  40  50  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  70  93  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  67  92  66 /  30  50  40  40  20
CAMDEN      71  92  68  92  66 /  30  50  40  30  10
CRESTVIEW   70  92  71  93  67 /  30  30  40  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$