000
FXUS64 KMOB 171843 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
120 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUE. SCT TO
BKN CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2.5KFT TO 6KFT THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TUE
FOLLOWED BY SCT CEILINGS AROUND 5KFT THROUGH 09Z TUES THEN SCT TO
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 2.5KFT THROUGH 12Z TUE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 00Z TUES
DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING MOSTLY ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
ALL TERMINAL MOSTLY THIS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR MAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
SHOWS AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHED OUT FROM THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE GULF INTO TEXAS. TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF RIDGE
AXIS...A BROAD TROF EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN US. A FAIRLY CLOUDY
REPRESENTATION OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WITH
POCKETS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS => ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
FORMING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT. A MUCH
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE ON THIS FOLLOWING. THE WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTAIN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES THAT WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES (ABOUT 120 TO 140% OF NORMAL)...SETS
THE STAGE FOR INCREASED COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. FORECAST EXTRAPOLATION OF LEADING EDGE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OKLAHOMA IS PROGGED TO SEND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUS...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE A BETTER FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT => BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD VERY WELL CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
NIGHTTIME STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST AS LITTLE CHANGE SEEN
IN THE OBSERVED HIGH LEVEL FLOW...EASTWARD PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. BEFORE STORMS GET GOING...DAYTIME
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR...TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 73 INTERIOR
TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10

A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS
MODERATE.

[TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...AN ELONGATED WEST-EAST
ORIENTATED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
BOTH DAYS AND BRING GENERAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS INLAND
AREAS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73
DEGREES INLAND AREAS WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR
AREA OF WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN STRADDLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DURING TIMES OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS INLAND AREAS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES...WITH UPPER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID
90S. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS
WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION [17.12 KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VARIABLE CLOUD BASES WITH A MAJORITY OF LOWEST
BASES ABOVE 3 KFT. SCATTERED DAYTIME TSRA LOOK TO LOWER BASES AND
VSBY TO MVFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR
STORMS. AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF STORMS...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
MORNING BECOMES 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 16 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAY. /10

&&

.MARINE...WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH INTO
THE MID GULF...MAINTAINS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT OF FLOW INTO
THURSDAY. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS...DISCOUNTING ANY GUSTS...GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE
LOWERING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS MOSTLY
AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MARINE STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  74  91  73  89 /  50  20  30  30  50
PENSACOLA   90  77  89  76  89 /  50  20  30  20  50
DESTIN      88  78  88  76  87 /  40  20  30  20  40
EVERGREEN   92  73  92  70  90 /  60  30  50  60  50
WAYNESBORO  92  72  91  70  90 /  60  30  50  60  40
CAMDEN      92  73  91  70  90 /  60  30  50  60  40
CRESTVIEW   91  73  92  71  91 /  50  30  30  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$