000
FXUS64 KMOB 150922
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION WHILE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROF HAS MOVED EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF FRONT...SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT. ALOFT...UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CONSIDERING THE
DARKENING => DRYING IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS LESS THAN 1.25"...WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TODAY FOR MOISTURE TO BEGIN MODIFYING UNTIL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...COMPRESSIONAL
SINKING AND WARMING WILL ACT TO KEEP CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS LOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 10% OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN ZONES. THE ZONE OF POTENTIAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS...WHERE FORECASTERS HAVE A LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
PROBABILITY...WILL BE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THIS NORTH OF THE BEACHES CLOSER TO WEAK LIFT OFFERED BY THE COASTAL
SEABREEZE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S NORTH OF THE
COAST...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70
INTERIOR...MID 70S COAST. /10

A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS
LOW.

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
STRADDLED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
BECOME AN ELONGATED WEST-EAST UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVES AND DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS INLAND
AREAS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S. LOWS
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STRADDLED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WHILE A
SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTS
NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE BASED
TROUGH NOW LOOKS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DURING TIMES OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS INLAND AREAS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES...WITH UPPER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID
90S. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS
WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION [14.12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LATE AM AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
AROUND 4 KFT. /10

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING
DISSIPATES AS SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GULF LOOKS TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOME SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF EASES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COMBINES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES THEN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  90  73  89 /  05  05  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   92  76  89  75  89 /  10  05  20  20  30
DESTIN      89  76  87  75  88 /  10  05  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   93  70  92  69  91 /  05  05  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  93  70  92  70  91 /  05  05  20  20  40
CAMDEN      92  70  92  70  91 /  05  05  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  69  92  69  92 /  20  05  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$