Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FNUS74 KMOB 201206
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Eglin Rx F-8...USAF
National Weather Service Mobile AL
706 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southeast to south flow in the mixing layer is expected
through tonight. Rain coverage is expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the day, with this afternoon and evening seeing the
strongest storms along with most coverage.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0700, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1300, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100-2400 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3800 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....12 increasing to 48.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75  76  78  79  79  80  78  76  74  76
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............77  80  83  85  85  85  85  84  83  82
RH..............85  79  72  67  65  65  65  67  70  72
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   8   10  11  12  12  12  12  11  10
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.1
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  15  17  18  18  18  18  18
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Dispersion idx..28  30  32  36  42  47  47  46  45  41
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900, then >25 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200-3500 ft AGL decreasing to 900-1400 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph shifting to the southeast 7
                    to 8 mph after midnight.
Dispersion index....40 decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........77  79  83  86  90  91  91  92  92  91  91  90
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).60  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Temp............80  79  78  77  76  75  74  73  73  73  73  72
RH..............77  79  82  87  90  94  93  97  97  93  93  97
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.18  18  17  16  14  12  9   8   7   7   7   7
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Dispersion idx..38  23  18  16  14  11  9   7   7   7   7   8
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   7

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................>25 strikes until 0700, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3300-3500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....13 increasing to 30.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........87  86  86  87  88  88  89  89  89  90  91  91
Weather cov.....DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).80  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70
LAL.............5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............72  73  76  79  82  83  84  84  84  83  82  81
RH..............97  93  85  77  69  67  65  65  65  67  72  74
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   12  13  13  12  12  12  13  13  12
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Dispersion idx..9   17  20  23  25  26  27  28  28  29  29  26
LVORI...........7   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...16
Requested by...Brett Williams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709792.0/MOB
.EMAIL brett.williams.4@us.af.mil



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