Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FLUS44 KMOB 211122
HWOMOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
522 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
522 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONSIDERING AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW AND MOVING INTO A SPRING
TIDAL CYCLE...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG THE
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS...TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS SETS
UP THIS WEEKEND...DURING A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND SPRING
TIDAL CYCLES.

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS OVER ANY PART OF THE
LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GIVEN AN ASSESSMENT OF THE WIND
PROFILES...STORMS LOOK TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT A RAPID 40 TO
45 MPH. THUS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN VERY
QUICKLY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SYSTEM.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES...MAINLY OVER POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING URBAN AREAS. THE
RISK OF MORE OF A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS LIMITED DUE TO
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND THE FACT THAT MANY LOCAL RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING STREAM FLOWS WHICH ARE BELOW NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUESTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-221200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
522 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE FIRST
OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST CAUSES AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW.
OUT OF CONSIDERATION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREQUENT GUSTS
MOVING ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...CAUSING STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE. SEAS TRENDING
MUCH HIGHER...BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET THE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL DEVELOP CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE MARINE STORMS THIS WEEKEND
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /10

$$







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