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000
FXUS62 KTAE 171044
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
644 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Upper ridge axis translates eastward towards the east coast while an
upper low moves from the upper Midwest towards southern Canada. A
weak boundary will slide southward from the Mid South to central
Alabama and Georgia by tonight. Despite mid level flow becoming more
zonal, the front will remain to the north. Mid and upper level
clouds will continue to be plentiful in the near term which will
hinder more widespread fog development into this morning though some
patchy fog cannot be ruled out. With persistent onshore flow, a
greater coverage of fog may develop late tonight through our Alabama
and Florida counties but will need to see how the cloud coverage
transpires this evening. Highs today will range through the 80s and
lows tonight will fall into the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Upper ridging over the Gulf will persist through much of the
short and long term forecast period. Northwest flow aloft will
kick off the period before becoming zonal/westerly Friday evening
as an upper low passes north of the Great Lakes and flattens the
ridge axis somewhat. Surface high pressure will set up off the FL
east coast and meander there through the end of the week before
gradually sliding east with the approach of the next system.

Large scale subsidence will yield dry conditions for the majority of
the period, though southerly surface flow will slowly increase
moisture content across the forecast area ahead of the weekend.
Westerly flow aloft will transport upper moisture across the region
resulting in some cirrus development, though max temperatures will
still reach well into the 80s, with Friday and Saturday featuring
temperatures in the 90s across our FL counties and perhaps as north
as our southernmost SW GA counties. Embedded within the
aforementioned zonal flow aloft will be weak shortwave perturbations
beginning Saturday, yielding a few scattered thunderstorms north of
the FL state line in our SE AL and SW GA counties.

On Sunday, a frontal system will push into the area bringing more
organized showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Large-
scale ascent is somewhat weak with this system, especially with
southern extent where PoPs generally range from 20-30%. Highest PoPs
will be across our SE AL and SW GA counties ranging from 40-50%.
With weaker forcing expected, severe chances appear low at this
time. With the passage of the cold front, temperatures will cool
somewhat for the following days generally remaining in the low to
mid 80s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

TAFs will continue to be VFR today and tonight with mainly
mid/high clouds and southerly winds of less than 10 knots. Towards
the end of the TAF period, models are indicating some fog
development from southeast Alabama southeastward into the Florida
Big Bend. Have introduced IFR vsbys at DHN-ECP-TLH after 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Surface high pressure will keep our waters relatively calm
through the forecast period with favorable boating conditions
expected. On Sunday, a cold front will push through the area
bringing rain and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Southerly
winds will prevail through the majority of the forecast period
before becoming northerly following the passage of the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

As deep layer high pressure continues to dominate, dry conditions
will continue over the next few days. A weak frontal boundary tries
to approach the area Thursday but remains north of our service area.
The next front to make it into the area comes Sunday into Monday. No
critical fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Dry conditions will prevail for the next few days before the
next system moves into our area on Sunday. Less than a quarter inch
of rainfall is expected to occur with this weekend system areawide.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla,
and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen
into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.
Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwanee with additional
points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   80  65  79  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        86  63  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        86  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  64  76  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Worster