352
FXUS62 KTAE 041429
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1029 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Overnight and
early-morning convection has pivoted east of Ben Hill-Irwin-Berrien
County in response to a swinging shortwave directly overhead.
Rain chances through 15Z were trimmed eastward to account. A
temporary lull in activity is expected before more
showers/thunderstorms pop- up this afternoon.

The 12Z HRRR suggests initiation south of I-10 as soon as 17Z
along the seabreeze. This solution seems reasonable given the SE
low-level flow and developing cumulus from the Forgotten Coast
towards the FL Panhandle. As the day progresses, convective
coverage increases while slowly drifting east towards the middle
of the Tri-State area with additional storms forming over Southern
AL this evening. The latter is likely attributed to an upstream
shortwave noted on vapor imagery moving through the ArkLaTex
region.

Environmental conditions are favorable for some strong storms
capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
downpours. The 12Z TAE sounding depicts an anomalously moist
airmass with adequate instability and light low-level flow. In
fact, a Precipitable Water value of 1.52" analyzed this morning is
near the daily 90th percentile. As such, there is some concern
for isolated heavy rainfall from slow-moving and/or merging cells,
especially along/east of the Apalachicola River. There is better
potential for gusty winds farther west where forecast DCAPE values
reach the 800-900 J/kg range.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Satellite shows the axis of an approaching shortwave currently over
Alabama this morning. This shortwave will rotate across the area
through the day, leading to scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms developing today into this evening. Forecast soundings
show fairly good CAPE and DCAPE values around 800 J/kg, indicating
some potential for a few stronger storms with gusty winds today. A
few storms could also produce isolated pockets of heavy rainfall,
but widespread heavy rainfall or flooding is not expected. While
remaining quite warm, highs today will be a touch cooler than the
previous few days due to the increased cloud cover and rain chances
today. Lows will remain in the mid 60s.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms linger in the forecast Sunday and Monday
afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 for
highs and overnight lows only manage the middle to upper 60s.

General troughiness at H5 should allow for a somewhat active sea
breeze again Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture coupled with weak
steering flow could lead to a localized flooding threat if any one
shower/storm lingers over an area for too long. We`ll also be on the
lookout for outflow boundaries that could interact with other
outflow boundaries or the sea breeze to spark additional showers and
storms. The best chance for that occurring is generally east of the
Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers, with a lesser chance, around
30 percent, for our western areas.

Another H5 shortwave is forecast to mosey north of our area during
the day Monday and could lead to additional showers and storms
Monday afternoon, especially along the I-75 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms linger in the forecast Sunday and Monday
afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 for
highs and overnight lows only manage the middle to upper 60s.

General troughiness at H5 should allow for a somewhat active sea
breeze again Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture coupled with weak
steering flow could lead to a localized flooding threat if any one
shower/storm lingers over an area for too long. We`ll also be on the
lookout for outflow boundaries that could interact with other
outflow boundaries or the sea breeze to spark additional showers and
storms. The best chance for that occurring is generally east of the
Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers, with a lesser chance, around
30 percent, for our western areas.

Another H5 shortwave is forecast to mosey north of our area during
the day Monday and could lead to additional showers and storms
Monday afternoon, especially along the I-75 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

To quote Glenn Frey: The heat is on. That about sums up the long
term forecast for the rest of the work week. In fact, record highs
could be challenged around the region as a ridge of high pressure
takes over across the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast. Not
much relief is expected at night with lows only falling into the
upper 60s to lower 70s around much of the region.

The good news? A cold front is forecast to approach the region late
in the period into next weekend and should push temperatures back to
near normal, maybe even below normal, by Mother`s Day weekend.

All of this is heat is due to a developing H5 ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico nudging north into the Southeast. Meanwhile, an H5 trough
diving out of Canada Wednesday into Thursday could help keep the H5
ridge a little south than forecast. In other words, there remains
some uncertainty as to just how warm we get across the region during
the period. While the lower 90s are expected away from the immediate
coast, there is a low chance, less than 10 percent, of a few
locations reaching into the middle 90s each afternoon. Overnight
lows will be well above normal each night with upper 60s to lower
70s. In fact, sites along the immediate coast may not dip much below
the mid 70s Tuesday night and beyond.

Fortunately, the H5 trough mentioned above will slowly push a cold
front into the region sometime Friday or Saturday. This should put a
damper on the summer-like heat by Mother`s Day weekend and push
temperatures closer to normal, or mid 80s for highs and near 60 for
lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain showers pushing across GA this morning will push eastward and
out of the area. A bit of a lull is expected for a few hours this
morning before showers and thunderstorms develop across the area
this afternoon and linger into the evening hours. A mix of fog/low
stratus will improve to VFR around mid to late morning. Another
round of fog and/or low stratus is expected overnight,
particularly in areas that get rainfall today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting east to SE winds up to 10 kts with
less than 2-ft seas and a dominant period of 6-7 seconds this
morning.

From CWF Synopsis...Tranquil boating conditions continue through
the weekend and into next week as high pressure hangs out in the
western Atlantic. Light winds, generally out of the south-
southeast, are expected with seas around 2 feet through the
weekend. The afternoon seabreeze brings a direct onshore component
along the immediate coastal waters. There is a slight chance of
showers and storms today and again Sunday mainly just inland along
the seabreeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
today with gusty erratic winds possible in and around storms.
Generally onshore flow is expected for the next several days except
at times overnight when a land breeze may set up. Expect a sea
breeze to develop and move inland each afternoon. Mixing heights
will increase Monday, leading to the potential for high dispersions
in the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Ample moisture coupled with the potential for slow-moving showers
and storms this afternoon could lead to a localized flooding threat
later today. The latest HREF is showing a 40 to 60 percent chance of
rainfall in excess of 3" across our eastern timezone counties, or
east of the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, over the next 48
hours. If these higher rainfall totals come to fruition, localized
street flooding is possible, especially if it falls in the more
urban areas. Drier weather takes over next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  66  89  68 /  50  40  30  10
Panama City   82  68  85  69 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        87  66  88  66 /  40  40  30   0
Albany        87  65  88  67 /  70  70  40  10
Valdosta      85  65  89  67 /  60  60  50  10
Cross City    88  65  88  66 /  50  20  40  10
Apalachicola  80  70  81  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

update...IG3
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese