000
FXUS62 KTAE 150035
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2013

.NEAR TERM [Until 7 AM Saturday Morning]...
The cold front has slipped off the FL Panhandle coast, but remains
draped across our eastern FL Big Bend counties. In addition, an
outflow boundary is approaching the Suwannee River from the east
and has been triggering new convection. Will leave slight to low
chance PoPs in this area for a few more hours. Drier air nehidn
the front will allow temps to drop a few degrees lower than the
very high mins we`ve seen over the past two mornings. Look for mid
70s near the coast tapering down to upper 60s over south central
GA and our northern tier of zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM [7 AM Saturday Morning Through Sunday Night]...
Surface trough right along the gulf coast is forecast to weaken
on Saturday as the upper trough slides east and ridging builds
aloft. With a drier airmass in place and minimal forcing, expect
only isolated afternoon convection with the seabreeze. High
temperatures should be a bit warmer on Saturday, especially to the
west closer to the ridge, where mid 90s are on tap away from the
coast.

The ridge is forecast to flatten on Sunday, with a modest
increase in deep layer moisture. This should allow for slightly
higher PoPs associated with the seabreeze. High temperatures will
remain in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
The tri-state area will be on the southern periphery of the
faster westerlies early next week with scattered afternoon/evening
convection expected. Depending on the timing of a shortwave passing
to the north and its associated surface boundary, rain chances may
be higher on Tuesday through Thursday (especially over the
northern zones). Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00 UTC Sunday] The cold front that moved through earlier
today will stall over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and into
tomorrow morning, placing our area under dry northerly flow
through this period. Therefore, VFR conditions should prevail
tonight and into tomorrow morning across the area. Tomorrow
afternoon, isolated thunderstorms could develop over north Florida
as the sea breeze moves onshore, and possibly affect ECP and TLH.
However, precipitation chances will remain low, and VFR conditions
will continue at most locations throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have dropped below cautionary levels this evening and should
continue to diminish through the weekend as the the stationary
front washes out and the subtropical ridge becomes reestablished
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas should remain low
through the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  92  71  91  71 / 10  20  10  30  20
Panama City   76  89  75  86  75 / 10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        72  94  72  93  73 / 10  10  10  20  10
Albany        70  93  69  92  72 / 10   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      69  92  67  91  70 / 10  10  10  20  10
Cross City    71  92  69  92  70 / 30  20  10  30  20
Apalachicola  76  87  75  85  75 / 10  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM/MARINE...Wool
AVIATION...Godsey/Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
REST OF DISCUSSION...Camp