000
FXUS62 KTAE 200920
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
520 AM EDT Mon May 20 2013

...Scattered thunderstorms and the potential for hail and gusty
winds possible this afternoon...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fairly interesting fcst for today, especially across the eastern one
third of the CWA. High Temps should be summerlike once again with
lower 90s expected across the interior. Although PoPs will be
generally on the low side (ranging from silent 10s over the western
half of the area to 20-40% as we progress further eastward). Fcst
model soundings are once again very impressive over the eastern
third of the region. In this area, mid-level lapse rates are very
steep in association with the weakening Upper Level Trof, increasing
our concern for gusty winds and at least small hail. In fact,
forecast soundings from both the GFS and NAM are even more
impressive than yesterday, and if enough daytime insolation is
realized, the possibility for Severe Hail (especially across
northeastern sections of our GA counties) this will need to be
examined very closely. More clues to this potential will likely be
revealed once our 06 UTC local WRF run and new CAM output is
generated, and will become available on our morning AFD update.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

A broad area of mid/upper level low pressure will wobble around
the Southeast on Tuesday, generally centered over north-central
Florida. This weak upper support will enhance the afternoon East
Coast Seabreeze front and generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms across primarily the eastern third of our forecast
area, late in the afternoon. Storms will gradually diminish with
the loss of daytime heating Tuesday night. A similar set-up is
expected on Wednesday with the exception being that the upper low
will open up into an approaching shortwave trough. Regardless, the
mid/upper level forcing will remain and a similar pattern for
storm development is expected. Highs will hover around the 90
degree mark each afternoon, with middle 80s likely near the coast.

Each afternoon will carry the potential for sub-severe hail and
gusty winds. The cool pocket of air aloft (associated with the
low) will help steepen lapse rates in the hail growth region. The
potential for gusty winds is a bit less than that of hail, surface
to mid-level dTheta-e values remain slightly below favorable
thresholds. Thus, any gusty winds will likely be associated with
hail loaded downdrafts. In general, the threat for severe weather
will lessen each afternoon as lapse rates begin to moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...

A chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected on Thursday as
a low amplitude mid-upper level trough ejects east from the
Plains. A weak surface front should be developing into our area
favoring at least a bit of a focus for larger scale vertical
motion. Therefore, PoPs on Thursday were increased into the
30-40% range. After that, a strong surface high builds south into
the eastern US, and the weak surface front shifts south into the
Florida Peninsula. This should allow for some drier air to arrive
and slightly lower PoPs closer to climatological normals. The
temperature forecast is one of persistence, with highs maintaining
close to 90.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Monday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the Taf Cycle, with ECP, DHN, and VLD just experiencing brief
periods of MVFR conditions this morning. PoPs are expected to be
fairly low this afternoon, with the best chance for a thunderstorm
at VLD where a Prob30 group has been inserted. However, if a storm
does develop, it could be accompanied by gusty winds and small
hail.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days
under the influence of surface high pressure. Some slight
enhancements will be possible near the coast within the seabreeze
front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No Red Flag concerns are expected for the next several days, with
Afternoon Relative Humidities remaining safely above critical
levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated over the
next couple of afternoons, and will primarily be confined to areas
east of a line from Tallahassee north to Albany. With weak
steering flow, any storms that do form will have the potential to
meander very slowly or propagate along boundaries. For that
reason, there will remain the potential for isolated nuisance
flooding, but this will have little to no impact on area rivers
and streams.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   92  65  90  66  90 / 20  10  20  20  30
Panama City   87  68  84  70  82 / 10  10  20  10  20
Dothan        92  67  92  68  91 / 10  10  20  20  20
Albany        91  67  91  67  90 / 20  10  20  20  30
Valdosta      93  65  88  65  88 / 30  20  30  20  40
Cross City    90  65  88  65  87 / 40  20  40  20  30
Apalachicola  86  66  82  68  82 / 10  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Gould
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Lamers/Harrigan
AVIATION...Gould
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Gould
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan