110
FXUS63 KDLH 021750
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- System bringing heavy rain for portions of the Northland and
  severe weather in north central Minnesota will arrive this
  evening and last through Monday morning before showers become
  more localized in coverage Monday daytime.

- The threat of tornadoes in north-central Minnesota from severe
  weather this evening has decreased as of this morning, with
  damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail around an inch in
  diameter as the primary hazards late this evening and early
  tonight.

- Areas of dense fog are very likely (60-80% chance) Monday
  night into early Tuesday morning.

- Quickly followed by another system that will bring more heavy
  rain and severe weather Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Lingering fog this morning in northwest Wisconsin with
visibilities as low as a quarter mile in some areas. As the sun
rises and low level mixing starts up, fog should dissipate by
mid morning. Before the excitement later today, lingering dry
air aloft and efficient mixing today will lead to dry
conditions, especially in the Arrowhead. Relative humidity as
low as 20% is possible in the Arrowhead and 30% elsewhere.

Convergence aloft from flow switching to the south and warm
and moist Gulf air being advected up to the Upper Midwest will
slowly saturate the lower and mid levels throughout the day. A
thin area of clouds and light rain showers are present in
central Minnesota this morning, but is battling dry air, so only
some sprinkles will hit the ground, if anything. Some showers
may reach the ground by early afternoon in northern
Itasca/Koochiching counties.

The main show begins later in the evening as a cold front with
a low pressure system in the Dakotas moving northeast to Canada.
Heightened instability (500-1500 J/kg) across western and north
central Minnesota along with marginal 0-6km shear (~30kts) and
lapse rates over 7 C/km for the afternoon will lead to isolated
to scattered severe storms throughout northeastern and north
central Minnesota. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main
threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado are also
possible with these storms - especially earlier in the evening.
Once night falls, lower levels become stable, and the severe
threat will decrease a few hours after midnight. Then the line
of storms will become elevated and continue to make its way
through the area.

Heavy rainfall will also accompany this line. Predicted PW and
rainfall totals continue to decrease, but PWs up to an inch and
a half and up to an inch of rain is still possible (60%) where
the heaviest rain falls. Main areas that will see highest values
are the Brainerd Lakes area, decreasing as you head east. With
saturated soils from recent rainfall, isolated areas of ponding
to minor flooding may occur.

A sharp upper level trough dipping down into the Central Plains
will bring another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall.
This system has a similar setup to this one, but the system`s
arrival in the morning will lead to the severe threat being
further east. Global models show MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6km
shear in excess of 30 kts for most of the Northland, but
specifically across the southern half of our area. Heavy
rainfall is also expected, but models currently diverge on the
timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall. However, PWs once
again in excess of 1.5 inches could lead to widespread half inch
to an inch across the Northland.

By Wednesday, a blocking pattern seems to set up over the
western CONUS which will lead to temperatures cooler than
normal, gusty winds, and more chances for showers and storms
throughout the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A warm front lifting over the Northland this afternoon creates
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances at most
northern Minnesota terminals through 03Z Monday. Small hail is
possible from the stronger thunderstorms through this mid-
evening time period. The better chances of severe weather
producing damaging wind gusts around 40-50 kts and large hail
around an inch in diameter enter north-central Minnesota,
especially around BRD, after 03Z and lasting through 09Z in
northeast Minnesota. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to
trail to primary line of thunderstorms clearing last in
northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead early Monday morning
before lifting and scouring out from 15-18Z Monday. There is
high uncertainty on when those ceilings lift and scour out
though at area terminals so left lower-vis/cig restrictions in
the TAFs for now until confidence increases on that timing.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A couple rounds of showers and storms over western Lake Superior
today and Tuesday will have increased northeast winds in
otherwise lighter southwest winds. No hazardous conditions are
currently expected, but will need to be monitored whether these
increase for the Tuesday system. Some strong to severe storms
are possible over western Lake Superior on Tuesday as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...KML