931
FXUS62 KTAE 170146
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
946 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

This evening update features a significant uptick in rain chances
per radar trends and CAM guidance. An ongoing MCS over
southwestern Louisiana is poised to continue moving eastward along
the northern Gulf Coast through the overnight hours. Ahead of this
complex of storms, isolated showers and a rumble of thunder are
possible, mostly near and offshore of the Emerald Coast through
about 3 AM CT. Afterward, we`ll be watching the MCS approach our
forecast area. The storms will likely be elevated given that we`ll
likely still be north of the warm front. Thus, severe storms are
currently not anticipated, but wouldn`t be surprised if storms
contain frequent lightning and some small hail. The strongest
storms look to be near and offshore of the Emerald Coast, but
we`ll continue to monitor through the night.

The MCS will likely make it into our Panhandle counties close to
sunrise Friday morning, then traverse across the rest of the area
Friday morning. While not explicitly forecast, the last several
runs of the HRRR have indicated wake low development on the
backside of this complex. If this were to materialize, then gusty
winds will be possible Friday morning, especially near the coast.
However, confidence in convective evolution is too low for
inclusion in this forecast update. Will let the next shift
evaluate trends.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf this
afternoon. High pressure will move east across the Florida Peninsula
tonight, then continue on to northeast of the Bahamas on Friday.

In response, low-level southerly flow will get underway and
gradually increase, bringing a return of deeper and richer surface-
based moisture by Friday morning. A warm front will then continue
northward on Friday afternoon through our Alabama and Georgia
counties, bringing a warmer and moister air mass northward.

Meanwhile, 700-500 mb flow will back around south of due west and
increase in strength, in response to an eastward-propagating and
positively tilted upper trough traversing the Southern Plains. The
first of multiple shortwaves will eject through the strengthening
mid-level flow, zipping across our region early Friday morning. This
will drive the cluster of storms currently over eastern Texas
eastward overnight. By the time they get this far east, the storms
will have weakened some and could very well be elevated on the cool
side of the northward-advancing warm front. Later on Friday, there
could be a temporary lull over our Florida counties, but convection
could continue to occasionally fire off over our Alabama and Georgia
counties thanks to lift provided by the northward-advancing warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The potential for severe weather is increasing and SPC has
upgraded western portions of the area from a Marginal to Slight
Risk on the latest Day 2, valid Friday night into Saturday
morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is now in an
SPC Marginal Risk. One or more rounds of thunderstorms is
expected. The first round could occur or be ongoing as early as
Friday night, although the more significant round is expected
on Saturday into Saturday night. The high shear values are
more reminiscent of the cool season while decent instability
is expected. Damaging winds and possibly a tornado appear to be
the main threats. Those with outdoor/travel plans should
remain weather aware and adjust plans in advance accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Depending on the timing, a chance of showers and thunderstorms could
linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday. Cannot rule
out a slight chance of showers across far eastern areas on Monday
as another shortwave swings through. Otherwise, dry conditions
look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with
temperatures slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A return of low-level southerly flow will get underway over the next
24 hours, as surface high pressure exits off to the east.
FEW-SCT coverage of fair weather cumulus is expected until sunset,
when thermal lift will end. Then late tonight, the southerly flow
will spread mainly MVFR cigs northward into across the FL terminals
(ECP and TLH). Around or after sunrise, the elevated and weakening
remnants of thunderstorms currently over eastern Texas will make
their way in from the west.

Have included VCTS at ECP only. Have only included showers at the
other terminals through 18z Friday, but will need to watch for
eventual inclusion of thunder.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Main changes to tonight`s forecast is to increase the rain
chances, especially over the western waters. A complex of storms
will move over the northern Gulf waters late tonight into Friday
morning, perhaps remaining strong. Additionally, several runs of
CAM guidance indicates a wake low could develop on the backside of
these storms. If this materializes, then gale force gusts could be
possible as storms depart. Confidence in this scenario is too low
for explicit inclusion at this time.

From CWF Synopsis...Southerly breezes will start to increase on
Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of
strong thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning,
possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small
hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday
ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger
into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds
are expected to return for early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak front will approach the area on Friday and Saturday, passing
the districts on Sunday. In advance of the front on Friday and
Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the
area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe
storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the
air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is
forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep
mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Both the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Ochlockonee River at
Concord continue in minor flood stage. More rain is headed into the
area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected
rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area,
but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if
thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a
marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from
the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  88  73  84 /  30  50  20  80
Panama City   71  85  72  82 /  60  50  30  80
Dothan        69  86  71  81 /  50  70  40  90
Albany        68  86  72  83 /  20  70  40  90
Valdosta      68  89  73  87 /  10  30  20  80
Cross City    66  89  73  87 /  10  30  10  70
Apalachicola  73  83  74  81 /  40  40  20  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Young
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF/Young
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...DVD