Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FNUS74 KMOB 241122
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for H-4 RX...Eglin AFB
National Weather Service Mobile AL
522 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...A warm, moist southerly flow will remain in place
over the burn area this weekend. A few brief light rain showers
could pass over the area through this evening, followed by a chance
of rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two on Sunday as a
cold front approaches from the northwest. Afternoon dispersions
over the burn area will be fair today and Sunday.

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog early this morning
with visibility less than 1 mile possible will lift by mid morning.
Patchy light fog possible tonight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1400 increasing to 2100 by noon.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....24 increasing to 38 by noon.
LVORI...............4 early becoming 3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........60     61     65     64     64
Weather cov.....PATCHY        S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....FOG    NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............70     73     76     76     73
RH..............84     81     74     71     79
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..6      8      10     10     8
20 FT wind gust.8      11     13     13     11
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   1700   2100   1900   1900
Transp wind dir.SE     S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.14     16     17     17     16
Dispersion idx..24     32     38     37     36
LVORI...........4      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 2400, then 1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......800-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 16 mph.
Dispersion index....11-15.
LVORI...............4 becoming 6.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........63     68     74     81     82     81
Weather cov.....                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      2      2      2
Temp............69     68     68     68     67     66
RH..............90     93     93     97     97     100
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..7      6      6      6      6      6
20 FT wind gust.10     8      8      8      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1000   1000   1000   900    800
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.15     15     15     16     15     13
Dispersion idx..15     15     14     14     13     11
LVORI...........4      5      5      5      6      6

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800 increasing to 2200 by noon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 30 by noon, then decreasing
                    to 17 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3-5.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........75     75     74     74     75     75
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     50     50     50
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............66     71     74     76     75     74
RH..............100    91     83     79     81     83
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..6      7      8      9      8      7
20 FT wind gust.7      10     11     12     11     10
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1200   1700   2200   2000   2000
Transp wind dir.S      S      SW     SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.12     14     16     17     13     9
Dispersion idx..14     22     29     30     23     17
LVORI...........5      4      4      3      3      4

$$
Forecaster...22
Requested by...Tom Murrie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802444.0/MOB
.EMAIL thomas.murrie@us.af.mil



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