Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201707
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1107 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

No major changes made to the forecast this morning. Low clouds
remain over all but the far southwestern part of the CWA, with
areas of fog, dense in some locations, and drizzle also occurring.
No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

An expansive low stratus deck is situated over nearly all of the CWA
this morning. While a few locations are reporting a visibility
greater than a half mile, will maintain the dense fog advisory for
the next shift to adjust. The low clouds and fog will not be leaving
anytime soon as southerly flow and snow melt will keep the
environment very moist. That said, a surface low pressure system
currently over western SD will lift northward today with clearing
skies possible in the SW portion of the CWA. Tried to account for
this scenario in the sky and weather grids.

Another surface low pressure system and upper level trough will
track northward over the region later tonight through Saturday.
While profiles show better LLM with this system, the lack of good
lift will likely result in areas of drizzle. Could see patchy
freezing drizzle as colder air moves into the region from the
west. This system stalls over northern MN on Sunday with low
stratus and drizzle possible over the northeast portion of the
CWA. Overall, am expecting little, if any, snow or ice
accumulation over the next few days. However black ice will be
possible on some roadways.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The operational models and gefs ensembles show pretty good agreement
during the long term. The period begins with a weak 50h ridge out
west Sunday night building slowly east into our region through
Monday with a corresponding surface high pressure ridge pushing
east. Then the models all show a significant surface low pressure
area moving across the central plains from Monday night through
Tuesday night. There were differences in the track along with the
precipitation coverage across our region. The gfs was the furtherest
north with the Canadian model the furtherest south and the EC in
between. With it being 4 to 5 days out, the superblend pops look
good at this time with good chances of snow across our cwa. After
this moves on by, a large positive tilt upper level low pressure
trough extends across most the country with weak short waves
dropping in from the north. This will bring a few small chances of
light snow mainly east along with cooler air from the north. Highs
through the period are expected to be mainly in the mid 20s to the
lower 30s across the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Fog will continue to be a concern through at least mid morning
Saturday. While there will be some improvements, LIFR to IFR will
be common. Winds will remain around 10kts or less.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037-051.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...KF



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