Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 292327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...LIKELY EXITING
THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS
OF 00Z LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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