Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 222007
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
307 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING APPROACHES...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER OUR CWA
IS PRETTY DRY. OBSERVED SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE GREATER
THAN 20 DEGREES...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT IT IS
GOING TO BE MAINLY AFTER 06Z BEFORE THE COLUMN SATURATES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. THEREFORE...DELAYED POPS BY AT LEAST 3 HOURS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A LOW LEVEL JET DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT
MINIMAL CAPE...SO ONLY GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BEYOND TUESDAY ITS LOOKING WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S...TO THE UPPER 80S.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEY ALL SUPPORT THE SIMILAR IDEA
WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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