Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191459 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
959 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
212...TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THANKS TO A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 10 AND 2KFT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO LITTLE MORE
THEN A SPRINKLE HOWEVER. ALSO GETTING SOME STRATUS AND FOG TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE JAMES VALLEY AND COTEAU
BREAK INTO MORE SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE TRANSITION IS GOING
SLOWER THEN EXPECTED SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF ABERDEEN.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A DECK OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA AFFECTING KABR AND KATY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT
NEAR KATY WHERE CHANNELING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL KEEP
THE GUSTS GOING UNTIL EVENING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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