Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231003
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
403 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Snow has all but ended across the area, with scattered cloud cover
and some pockets of fog. Models show clouds dissipating today, with
afternoon sun. With recent snow and high pressure moving overhead
limiting mixing, can`t imagine we will warm all that
significantly today. For the same reason, temperatures will crash
tonight as well, though guidance does bring some cloud cover back
into the area which will help arrest temperature drops. Low
clouds will dominate across western/southern counties, while some
mid and high clouds are noted in BUFKIT for Aberdeen.

Focus shifts towards impacts from approaching system Saturday. A
shortwave ejecting into the plains will move across Nebraska to
Minnesota, with the best upper dynamics mainly to our southeast.
Best push of isentropic upglide is during daylight hours, with a
broad area of 5 to 15 microbars and a deep dendritic growth layer,
though its important to note that best lift is centered high up (400-
600mb) and not through the entirety of the profile. Still, with
less than 30kts below 700mb, we should still get some large
dendrites with this system. Peak model QPF in the CWA between the
NAM/Canadian is around .2-.3 while the GFS is closer to .1-.15 and
GEFS/SREF is right in that middle range. Thus, will stick with
the generally 2 to 4 inches for this system.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The extended period will feature mainly dry conditions as high
pressure dominates the majority of the period. A low pressure system
will slide across the Central Plains on Thursday, but at this time,
the precipitation associated with it looks to remain south and east
of the CWA. Temperatures will be near normal through the period,
with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and overnight lows generally
in the 10 to 15 degree range.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Light snow will end early this morning as the responsible
upper level low pressure trough moves on. Otherwise, IFR/MVFR
ceilings will lift tonight into early Friday with conditions
becoming VFR at all locations.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr



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