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000
FXUS63 KABR 172017
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY AM

A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.

A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.

THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO
KABR/KATY BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TUESDAY BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES
AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN