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000
FXUS63 KABR 170012 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
712 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY AM

PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SPLITTING THE CWA...WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...A TONGUE OF MILD/DRY AIR HAS KEPT MOST
WEAK RETURNS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALSO MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...THE RESULT OF EVAPORATE COOLING.

MODELS PUSH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
ON A EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY...WITH REDFIELD AND WATERTOWN
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. TO THE NORTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS...LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE ABOUT IT. A COOL...STABLE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MOST OF THE AREA.

THERE IS AN EXCEPTION HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO BREAK THE CAP...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CANT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO...AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET. LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG
ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER WEEK...WHICH
WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS IF ANY STORMS
RIDE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GFS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL HAVE GREAT AGREEMENT
AND CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG TERM. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE
TILT TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS REGION AND CLOSE OFF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM SATURDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE IN VERY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA AS
EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH GOOD
DEWPOINTS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD UP THROUGH THE DAY. WITH GOOD
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH A GOOD LLJ...THE SETUP APPEARS GOOD
FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS.
OTHERWISE...WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S INTO MONDAY AND
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY SPEAKING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SOME MODEL DATA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS
LATE TNT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CIGS IS LOW THUS ONLY A MEAGER MENTION
FOR NOW IN THE WESTERN TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

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