Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281938
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
WORKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S AMID A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS VERY
LARGE DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION BEING WORN AWAY
BY DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO
CARRY THIS DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. AND THIS TREND FOR A SLOW PUSH FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SKYCOVER FORECAST
GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO /IF NOT
BELOW/ THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEDNESDAY -> THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES /FOR NOW IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN P-TYPE/
ACROSS THIS CWA...STARTING OUT ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND ENDING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND CAM ALIKE...ARE GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALBEIT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING 925HPA AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH GLANCES
THE CWA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL FRIDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE 30S. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 20 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP UP ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SO AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ARE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT IF PRECIP MATERIALIZES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SPREADING MVFR CIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THE CLOUD
COVER WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
SHOWING UP ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THEREFORE...THE KPIR AND KMBG
TAF FORECASTS TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA....AND HELD MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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