Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260859
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WITH A RESIDUAL VORT LOBE BEING SHEARED OUT ACROSS ND. FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS HAVE COVERED THE CWA WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA. HAD ALREADY INCLUDED
MENTION OF DRIZZLE LAST EVENING AND WILL KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS THINKING.
VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRYING ALOFT. MID LEVELS DO NOT MOISTEN
UNTIL LATER TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS.

STILL ON TRACK TO RECEIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. DID DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS. BULK OF THE
PRECIP MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES APPEARS LIKELY STILL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER AN INCH. COLDER AIR STILL EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
NONETHELESS. SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE COOL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A S/W RIDGE WILL EXIST
OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A MAJOR WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WAVE
WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK THAT SYSTEM SHOULD SHEAR
OFF TO THE EAST WITH RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL AGAIN RISE TO MVFR ON TUESDAY AS LIFT
FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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