Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 200856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT TODAY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH
TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON TUESDAY GIVEN
THE GUSTY WINDS AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. CURRENT FORECAST RH
VALUES REMAIN IN THE 30S AT THIS TIME SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WILL
HAVE TO BE AWARE OF THE FACT THOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS MAY END UP
BEING LOWER THAN FORECAST WHICH FREQUENTLY HAPPENS DURING THESE
WINDY AND WARM DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED
SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW BEING IT IS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THERE
IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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