Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 311724 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Made some minor adjustments to the timing of possible rain showers
across the north...with nothing expected until the afternoon
hours. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Rain showers and a few thunderstorms continue to exit across our
west central MN Counties early this morning. Dry weather will then
be common for much of the daylight hours today. The only exception
will likely be across the N tier counties, closer to the nearing
500MB low currently along the MT/ND border which will be sliding
across ND through tonight. At the same time a secondary cold
front will  be sliding W-E across the CWA this afternoon. MU CAPE
values are minimal at around 500J/Kg, and moisture is limited. Will
still increase winds quite a bit behind the frontal boundary, which
gets up to just below Wind Advisory criteria. The sfc low over
central ND around 21Z will exit into MN overnight, allowing a ridge
of high pressure to slowly build across the western and central
Dakotas. The sfc high will be directly overhead Wednesday evening
into early Thursday. With WAA returning, temperatures should rise
back into the mid 70s to low 80s Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A positive PNA pattern appears as if it will persist during the long
term forecast. About the only chance for meaningful pcpn will be
Thursday night into Friday. A decent looking wave is expected to
track southeast over the region.  Moderate mlcapes...moderate llj
and strong winds at the mid levels should support some decent storms
although llm will likely be somewhat lacking. Cold air aloft may
support lingering showers in the east on Saturday.  The rest of the
weekend looks dry.  Temperatures should average out near normal for
the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Breezy southwest winds in the 15 to 30 knot range can be
expected this afternoon and early evening...along with some light
rain showers across the northern portion of the CWA.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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