Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 272026
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
226 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KMBG AND KPIR THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER EAST OVER KABR AND ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF FG/BR AND
LOWER CIGS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT
KATY WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WILL FORECAST
LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN REGARDS TO ALL
THIS HAPPENING...AND IF SO...THE LONGEVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVER KABR...LOWER CIGS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT BR QUITE
POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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