Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1223 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS GRANT/BIG STONE COUNTIES.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
WELL...SWITCHING  WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN EXPECTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD...KICKING ENERGY OUT HEAD OF IT...WHICH WILL BE NEARING
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS THE US FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE QUICK FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN ALL SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
WESTERN US INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KICK
OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE CWA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH MOSTLY 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY CREEP UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING TSTORMS NEAR KPIR AND KATY WILL BE AFTER 18Z FOR
KPIR AND AFTER 0Z THURSDAY FOR KATY. HOWEVER TIMING AND NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY STORMS IS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE A
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE/DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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