Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 262025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE AREA OF SNOW THAT TRACKED OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA TODAY HAS PUSHED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE CWA AS
OF 19Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WILL BEGIN TO GET PUSHED EASTWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSH OVER
THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAY SEE THE RAIN BECOME SNOW AGAIN ACROSS
THE FAR EAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. DECENT WAA DEVELOPS ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING. DUE TO THE
STRONG WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
TONIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEST ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A LARGE
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARMER AIR FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
AT 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z GFS SHOWS FRONT INTO MINNESOTA AT THAT TIME
WHEREAS THE 12Z EC STILL SHOWS THE FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT THERE
COULD STILL BE LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA.

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GET BACK INTO SOME WARMER AIR. ASIDE FROM THE
PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...THERE WILL BE
SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLANCES THE REGION. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS SHOWING
UP IN MODELS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
DAKOTAS WITH PRECIP...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE ALL RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RATHER COMPLEX CIG/WX/VSBY FORECAST COMING UP IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF -SN/SN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL SD...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR. -SN IS ABOUT READY TO EXIT
NORTH CENTRAL SD SO SHOULD LEAVE KMBG VICINITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO EXIT KPIR AND COULD
STILL SEE VSBY DOWN AROUND 1SM OR SO BEFORE IT DEPARTS. FURTHER
EAST...KABR AND KATY WILL NOT SEE -SN...BUT WILL SEE A MIX OF MVFR
AND LOW END VFR CIGS. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT KMBG AND
KPIR. A BIT MORE UNCLEAR OF THE CIG TREND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT INDICATIONS SUGGEST CIGS WILL GO BACK INTO VFR
TONIGHT BEFORE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN. FRIDAYS SYSTEM WILL FIRST AFFECT KPIR AND KMBG
WITH LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH -RA AND -SN. EXPECTING THESE
CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO KABR AND PERHAPS KATY LATER
FRIDAY...BUT LIKELY AROUND 18Z OR AFTER. CONFIDENCE NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH IN THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE AND WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED.


&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT





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