Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190541 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Given the current movement of the low and shortwave over
MT/WY/western SD, decided to substantially increase pops over
central SD tonight. Also increased pops across northern SD
Wednesday morning. Latest global and hi-res models seem to support
this trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Fast clearing of the thick cloud cover over the east this afternoon,
with just a few showers left over by 19Z, southeast of Castlewood
and over northern Corson County. Not expecting much out of the light
showers over northern Corson County.

Temperatures will fall into the 60s tonight as the sfc high across
ND swings a ridge overhead as it moves across MN. Look for the cold
front that crossed our area this morning to push back north in the
form of a warm front Wednesday afternoon. The highest temperatures
will be across our southwestern counties, where 100-103 degrees will
not be out of the question. Given the latest guidance, warmed up
temps a couple of degrees for all but our MN counties. The heat
index values surge up above 100 degrees with dewpoints in the mid to
uppper 60s. A Heat Advisory has been posted for those counties.
700mb temperatures are pretty warm during the daytime hours, leading
to a more capped environment. Still could have some showers or
storms along the ND/SD border during the afternoon hours possibly
shifting into eastern SD by 00Z Thursday. The sfc low will slide
into western SD as a shortwave shifts across ND. Will need to wait
and see where the storms develop, and if they can sneak into our
eastern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The first part of the long term looks to remain fairly active. For
both Wednesday night and again Thursday night expect MCS formation
within deep/moist/unstable airmass. The main limiting factor will be
warm EML aloft, with temps pushing +13C and warmer and H7. And model
consensus is only marginally complimentary, for both CAMS and non-
CAM models. For now will carry highest pops over the northeast cwa
where mid level temps are the coolest. Meanwhile, if the GFS/GEM are
correct, we could see a bit of a cool down by Sunday and Monday as
sfc high pressure builds south out of Canada. Temperatures overall
will favor near to above normal for much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will move into and across northern SD
tonight and Wednesday morning as a shortwave moves through ND. VFR
conditions are expected except in and near storms. Another round of
thunderstorms will set up over northeast SD late Wednesday as the
sfc low moves into SD. KATY may be affected by these storms after 0z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033-035-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Mohr


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