Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050319 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
919 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLOWLY LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH 5 TO
10 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING NOW AND SHOULD STEADY OUT
AND/OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WAA
/AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES/ PICKS UP STEAM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

RIGHT NOW THE CWA IS UNDER A GAP BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST...REPLACED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SUSTAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST WHICH...ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WILL KEEP READINGS MILD OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AN UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT. OMEGA VALUES REMAIN
BELOW 5 MICROBARS. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING ARE ONLY AROUND
40 PERCENT AT THE PEAK IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AS WELL...SO IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

850MB TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE MILD WITH READINGS BETWEEN +1 AND
+5C BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS EVEN WARMER AT +4 AND
+8C. WITH FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THE SKY
IS THE LIMIT.

AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY WITH AROUND 5 TO
10 MICROBARS AT 700MB. COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS WELL...THOUGH THE
MIXING THIS CREATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS THE FURTHEST WEST
WITH THE LOW...AND THEREFORE INDICATES MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. ONE THING ALL THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS AND COULD RESULT IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR
NOW...HAVE STAYED CLOSED TO SUPERBLEND POPS UNTIL IT BECOMES
CLEARER ON WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME INDICATION OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AS A LOW TRACK WEST OF THE CWA...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MEAN IT WILL TRACK THROUGH
DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 30S EARLY ON SUNDAY...THEN
SLOWLY FALL AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES
IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER BOUT OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE INCREASING. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY CEILINGS MAY DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN


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