Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 020332 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN







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