Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 180901
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST CWA. VISIBILITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS
DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND FOG IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...SO CANT EVEN RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM BECOMING STRONG IN THIS AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND
BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS CWA.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN CWA COULD BE IN A POSITION TO SEE STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY. WILL MONITOR AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH DEPICTION OF
UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THANKS TO A
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA. SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR QPF OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND SYSTEM FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT ABR AND ATY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD IN
MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. ABR AND ATY MAY BE AFFECTED BY THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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